《大行报告》花旗降汇控(00005.HK)目标价至39.6元 料首季税前少赚44% 但明年可派股息81美仙
花旗发表报告表示,新冠疫情冲击汇丰控股(00005.HK)旗下主要东亚市场,而本港市场早於去年下半年已开始下行趋势,所以可比较的基数较低。不过,花旗相信美国利率走向将令汇控净息差存在压力,对其目标价由44.9元下调至39.6元,维持「中性」评级。
该行下调对汇控今年每股盈利预测4%至39.1美仙,削其今年除税前盈利预测4%至140亿美元,主要是贷款损失拨备预测上升10%至60亿美元。该行关注汇控业务重整计划会否需要延迟,待集团在4月28日公布首季业绩发布会上所作更新。
花旗指,汇控现估值相当预测市账率0.63倍,较过去五年均值折让26%,相信集团有能力於2021财年上半派发全年度股息0.51美元。
此外,该行估计汇控今年首季列账基准除税前利润34.76亿美元,按年跌44%;总收入135.04亿美元,按年跌6.4%;货款拨备将升至18.69亿美元;每股盈利为10.1美仙;股本回报率为5%;料至3月底止普通股权一级比率为14.6%。
花旗估计汇控於2020年至2023年除税前利润各为138.11亿美元(按年升3.5%)、151.85亿美元(按年升9.9%)、205.04亿美元(按年升35%)及223.96亿美元(按年升9.2%),料其2020年至2023年期内每股派付股息各为零、81美仙、51美仙及51美仙。
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