上海電氣(02727.HK):前景依舊樂觀,維持“買入”評級,目標價3.00港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:3.00港元
2019年淨利潤同比上升24.8%,好於預期。2019年的收入和淨利潤分別同比增長26.0%和24.8%。公司於期內的業績好於市場和我們的預期。2019年的綜合毛利率同比下降1個百分點至17.2%,主要是由於期內各板塊的毛利率均出現回落。2019年淨利潤率則持平在2.9%。受新冠疫情影響,公司決定對期內盈利不做派息。
2019年的新簽訂單同比大增30.6%至人民幣1,707.9億元。其中,能源裝備、工業裝備和集成服務板塊分別貢獻了33.2%,26.7%和40.1%的新增訂單。截至報告期末,公司的在手訂單總額為人民幣2,408.6億元(其中人民幣695.9億元尚未生效),同比上升16.3%。?儘管國內的電力板塊投資於2020年前2個月急速下挫,但我們預計該投資將於2020年2季度開始全面提速。全國對電力板塊的投資於2020年前2個月達人民幣355億元,同比跌27.1%。其中,電力工程投資同比下跌10.7%至人民幣217億元,而電網投資同比大跌43.4%至人民幣138億元。我們預計國內對電力板塊的投資將於2020年突破人民幣9,000億元,同比上升12.6%。
我們重申“買入”的投資評級,但將目標價調整至3.00港元。鑑於上海電氣的持續轉型以及改革,我們對上海電氣的前景仍充滿信心。我們的目標價相當於10.0倍/8.9倍/7.9倍的2020年-2022年市盈率或0.6倍/0.6倍/0.6倍的2020年-2022年市淨率。

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