瑞銀:燃氣股首選中國燃氣(0384.HK) 目標價38.5港元
瑞銀髮布報告稱,將燃氣股2020-2022年的盈利預測下調10%-17%,以反映公共衞生事件影響經濟活動減慢及需求減弱,也將2020年燃氣銷量增長預測降至7%,並預計2021年增長將復甦至19%,估計2020及2021年燃氣行業平均盈利增長將為7%及24%。該行相信,對預期2021年燃氣需求復甦的投資者來説,其值吸引,且對行業中長期增長前景看法表示正面。
該行的基本情景顯示,2020年燃氣需求將在下半年復甦至正常水平,而今年首季燃氣銷量同比跌10%-15%,第二季大致平穩,下半年增長為15%-25%。該行估計,新奧能源(2688.HK)、華潤燃氣(1193.HK)及中國燃氣(0384.HK)今年的燃氣銷量將分別增7%、5%及25%,並預計中國燃氣銷量增長將快於同業,主要因為其財年在3月底結束,加上今年首季基數較低,另外公司也可受惠俄羅斯燃氣及“煤轉氣”的帶動。
在派息前景方面,新奧能源及華潤燃氣均維持正面的2020年派息指引,該行預計新奧能源、華潤燃氣及中國燃氣每股派息將分別增18%、7%及37%。該行表示,將內地燃氣股目標價下調14%,下調新奧能源目標價由115港元至97.5港元,維持“買入”評級;下調華潤燃氣目標價由50.5港元至44港元,降評級由“買入”至“中性”;維持中國燃氣“買入”評級,目標價由44港元降至38.5港元,並稱其仍是首選股,中國燃氣有最好的風險回報組合,估計其2021-2023年盈利年複合增長可達18%。
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