《大行报告》汇丰研究:内银中工建相对稳健 港银首季或受冲击
汇丰研究发表报告,指债价波动和投资资产欠缺透明度令盈利和账面风险上升,相信市场亦未完全有效分析银行投资组合的风险。在内地银行而言,其投资组合透明度更为有限,这种风险敞口可能会加强商业银行与非银行金融机构之间的系统性相互联系; 中小型银行的风险通常较高。
在该行覆盖的内银当中,建行(00939.HK)、工行(01398.HK)和中行(03988.HK)的投资风险较低,惟光大银行(06818.HK)、信行(00998.HK)、民行(01988.HK)、邮储行(01658.HK)、平安银行(000001.SZ)风险则较大。本港银行方面,相信包括中银香港(02388.HK)、东亚(00023.HK)及大新银行(02356.HK)在内的银行,其按市值计价投资的影响对季及上半年来说的风险迫在眉睫。
该行指,在内银当中,投资资产占其总资产的24-36%,而每1%的非主权债券投资亏损将拖累4-23%税前盈利,或对市账率带来0.4-2.6%的影响。部份银行则会有非债券类投资,如财富产品、信托产品等。
港银方面,其投资资产占总资产19-31%,主要是债务方面的占比,全球美元投资债券产品评级自年初至今调整影响下,预期今年首季和上半年表现会受冲击,每1%的非主权债券投资亏损相等於8-20%的税前盈利影响,或0.6-0.9%市账率的影响,但大部份银行以透过其他综合损益按公允价值衡量之金融资产(FVOCI)入账,故其公允值的变动会影响每股账面净值,而非每股盈利,除非基础投资已进行减值。
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