安踏體育(02020.HK)：Q1電商成績優異，FILA表現超預期，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
事件：4月15日安踏體育披露一季度經營情況。根據公司公告，受到新冠疫情影響，2020Q1安踏品牌、FILA品牌及其他品牌流水分別下滑20%-25%/中單位數/高單位數，我們預計集團流水整體下滑15%-20%，其中電商流水增速超過40%。
安踏品牌Q1流水下滑20%-25%。安踏主品牌終端流水下滑，電商業務平穩增長。我們判斷：1）安踏大貨Q1線下流水下滑20%+；2）安踏兒童線下流水下滑25%左右；3）疫情期間，公司發動全員零售，加強電商渠道引流，安踏電商流水實現中單位數增長；4）Q1庫銷比5+，受疫情影響同比有所提升，Q1零售折扣率不到7折，公司將回購部分庫存扶持經銷商。FILA品牌表現超預期，迪桑特實現流水雙位數增長。FILA品牌整體流水中單位數下滑，我們認為表現明顯優於行業平均水平，一方面得益於1月終端流水的強勁增長，另外一方面電商業務取得了高速增長。我們測算分渠道看：1）線下：FILAClassic線下流水下滑20%+；子品牌FILAFusion線下流水中單位數增長，FILAKIDS線下流水相對平穩；2）線上：FILA品牌電商全員迎戰疫情，推動社羣流量引流，實現線上線下產品互通，線上零售獲1.6倍增長；3）我們判斷Q1FILA庫銷比增至8+，除疫情影響外可能也受貨品提前佈局影響，展望全年，庫銷比有望恢復到正常水平。其他品牌中迪桑特表現亮眼，流水實現雙位數增長。
AmerSports長期發展清晰，若國際疫情下半年得到控制則短期影響較小。Amer業務：1）短期影響可控，2020年負面影響減小。我們估算Amer旗下品牌以冰雪運動產品為主，冬季收入佔比65%左右，受疫情影響季節並非銷售旺季。假如疫情在2020年7月得到控制，我們預計Amer集團業務收入影響可控，預計業務能夠實現小幅盈利，考慮PPA費用及利息支出後給安踏報表帶來2億左右負面影響。2）長期戰略規劃清晰，有望實現穩定增長。未來5年Amer集團“大品牌、大渠道、大國家”戰略，將培育3個10億歐元品牌，直營渠道數量拓展至1000+家，同時加快中、美等大國家市場開發。整體未來五年Amer集團計劃實現收入CAGR為10%+。
盈利預測與投資建議。安踏集團作為全球化運營的運動鞋服龍頭公司，多品牌戰略發展迅速，Amer集團業務整合加快公司的國際化進程。我們預計公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤至56.7/76.0/89.1億元，對應EPS2.11/2.83/3.32元/股，現價61.6港幣，對應20年PE26倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情持續的範圍及時間超過預期；終端需求下滑；多品牌及海外業務開展不順；人民幣匯率變動帶來業績波動。
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