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联想集团(00992.HK):业务由于疫情承压,给予“中性“评级,目标价4.60港元
格隆汇 04-16 14:57

机构:国泰君安

评级:中性

目标价:4.60港元

2020年第一季度的全球PC出货量同比下降9.8%至5,324万,由于新冠肺炎在中国的爆发导致供应减少(全球最大的PC供应市场)。

我们下调2020-2022财年收入预测5.2%/6.6%/3.9%。由于现阶段的复工复产率较高,我们预计中国的供应正在迅速恢复。但是,新冠肺炎在全球的爆炸式蔓延给全球供应链带来了巨大的不确定性,并给线下消费市场带来了压力。此外,疫情带来的经济压力可能导致消费者和企业收紧在PC和智能手机上的支出。我们预计数据中心业务将保持稳定,因为疫情期间对互联网服务的需求强劲。

我们下调2020-2022财年毛利率预测0.4个百分点/0.7个百分点/0.3个百分点。由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响,与物流和人工相关的成本在2020财年第4季度迅速上升。此外,由于出货量下降导致规模缩小也给利润率带来负面影响。由于新冠肺炎在全球的蔓延,我们下调了利润率预测。

我们将目标价从6.05港元下调至4.60港元,并下调公司的投资评级至“中性”。我们分别下调2020-2022财年的每股盈利预测17.8%/30.4%/12.6%。目标价相当于11.8倍、12.5倍和9.6倍2020-2022财年市盈率。

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