中糧肉食(01610.HK):一季度生豬出欄同比減少,品牌豬肉佔比提升,維持“買入”評級
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
核心觀點:
2020年一季度生豬出欄308千頭。一季度公司生豬出欄308千頭,同比減少62.1%,環比增加15%;生鮮肉銷量23千噸,同比減少48.8%環比減少4%;生豬養殖和生鮮肉銷量同比下降主要受新冠肺炎疫情影響。2020年一季度公司生鮮豬肉業務中品牌豬肉佔比44.5%,環比增加10.2個百分點,同比增加14個百分點。一季度公司商品豬均價為35.04元/公斤,同比增長207.1%。
一季度養殖頭均盈利接近2000元/頭。據公司業績會數據2020年一季度公司養殖全成本約16.5元/公斤,頭均盈利約2000元/頭;受疫情影響公司一季度能繁母豬存欄約12.6萬頭。預計到年末公司母豬存欄達23.8萬頭,其中能繁母豬18萬頭預計公司全年出欄維持在200萬頭,後期隨着出欄量增加,養殖全成本將下降。
預計2020-2021年業績分別為0.37元/股和0.32元/股。預計2020年生豬供應仍然偏緊,支撐全年豬價。2020-2021年的EPS預測為0.37和0.32人民幣元每股。當前價格對應2020、2021年PE倍數為5.01和5.71倍,維持合理估值為2020年9倍PE,合理價值3.65港元/股,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。豬瘟疫情存在不確定性;飼料成本大幅上漲;食品安全問題;合作養殖規模不及預期。注:本文除特別説明外,均使用人民幣為貨幣幣種。

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