維亞生物(01873.HK)：前瞻佈局早期研發+融資平台，鑄就全球創新孵化器，給予“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆全球領先的基於結構藥物發現服務商，CFS+EFS雙輪驅動
公司成立於2008年，目前已成為全球領先的基於結構藥物發現服務商。除CFS（服務換現金）業務，公司還開拓了EFS（技術服務換取股權）業務。公司2019年收入3.23億、淨利潤2.66億元，分別同比增長54%、194%。16-19年CAGR分別為49%、121%，持續較高增長。2020年3月9日，公司被正式納入恆生港股通等7大指數，順利進入“港股通”。
◆前瞻佈局鑄就全球創新孵化器，疫情危中有機
研發分散化下，Biotech已經成為研發立項的主體。公司“CFS+EFS”模式佈局前瞻，進一步助推Biotech浪潮。新冠疫情短期影響主要在於復工推遲，具有一過性。CRO行業長期趨勢不變，疫情危中有機：CFS業務有望提高全球市佔率，加速業務縱向和橫向延伸；EFS業務將更具吸引力。
◆CFS：聚焦+延伸，助推高增長
聚焦藥物發現早期環節競爭力，公司SBDD、FBDD、ASMS、靶向膜蛋白藥物發現四大技術平台全球領先。公司的CFS業務也持續向後端延伸，切入更大的市場。2019年CFS收入2.46億，同比增長59%。目前，公司已經實現靶點驗證、藥物篩選等環節佈局，後續有望延伸至CMO環節。
◆EFS：持續吸引優秀科學家，現金已基本自給自足
公司“事業合夥人”體系持續吸引全球優秀科學家，保障投資成功率。公司2019年EFS業務對應收入為7750萬元，同比增長42%。截至2019年底投資項目累計達到46個，併成功實現6個項目的部分股權退出，合計回收約1.13億元資金，EFS業務現金流方面已接近實現自給自足。
◆盈利預測與投資評級：公司作為全球領先的基於結構藥物發現服務商
CFS+EFS佈局前瞻，業績將持續較高增長。預測公司20-22年EPS為0.27/0.39/0.56元，分別同比增長43%/43%/45%，現價對應20-22年PE為15/11/7倍。結合分部、絕對估值法，我們認為其合理市值為98億元，每股價值6.27元（6.92港元），首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：疫情持續；藥企研發投入不及預期；競爭加劇；匯率波動。
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