中國利郎(01234.HK):業績被新型冠狀病毒肺炎的爆發所影響但估值被嚴重低估,維持“買入“評級,目標價6.70港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:6.70港元
2019年業績小幅差於預期。收入同比增長15.5%至36.58億元人民幣。整體毛利率同比下滑2.6個百分點至38.4%。經營費用得到良好控制,部分抵消了毛利率的下降。淨利潤同比增長8.1%至8.12億元人民幣。公司宣派了每股0.210港元的末期股息以及每股0.100港元的末期特別股息,全年派息比率為75.9%。
分別下調2020年和2021年每股盈利預測34.8%和17.6%至0.554元人民幣和0.812元人民幣。由於新型冠狀病毒肺炎的爆發,2020年1季度利郎零售店鋪的同店銷售額錄得40%-45%的同比下滑。公司預期該影響將逐步得到緩解,並期望2020年下半年的零售銷售額錄得不低於中單位數的增長。公司可能會向部分分銷商提供銷售回扣以幫助他們清理庫存,這將對公司的毛利率造成壓力。
削減目標價至6.70港元但維持“買入”評級。新型冠狀病毒肺炎的爆發將對公司2020年上半年的業務表現造成影響,但我們預期公司將在疫情過後快速復甦,並在2021年和2022年保持其業務增長。此外,公司的高派息比率使其股息回報率(2020年為9.5%)非常吸引。我們的目標價分別相當於11.0倍、7.5倍和6.7倍2020年、2021年和2022年市盈率,以及41.9%的上漲空間。我們認為公司目前的股價被低估,因此我們維持其“買入”評級。

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