中糧肉食(01610.HK)：一季度出欄量環比改善，業績有望加快釋放，維持“買入”評級，目標價3港元
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：3港元
一季度出欄量有所改善，逐步走出豬瘟疫情陰霾。公司2019年下半年受江蘇養殖場爆發豬瘟影響，三、四季度出欄分別降至26.5萬頭、26.8萬頭，2020年一季度出欄量改善至30.8萬頭，環比增長15%，展現出積極變化。公司在豬瘟防控、豬場管理上不斷積累經驗，有助於降低疫情風險。隨着養殖逐步恢復正常，全年出欄量會呈現前低後高的走勢，2020年200萬頭出欄的目標仍然值得期待。
一季度生豬出欄價格同比高增，業績有望加快釋放。公司一季度生豬出欄均價35.04元/公斤，同比上漲207%，也遠高於2019年全年均價16.5元/公斤，推算商品豬頭均利潤能達到2000元左右，盈利改善空間巨大。儘管市場上能繁母豬已經環比回升，中小養殖户信心有所恢復，今年下半年開始會有更多的供應進入市場，但是非洲豬瘟問題尚無根治方法，豬價在未來兩年大幅下跌的可能性不大，生豬養豬企業仍能享受行業高景氣。
一季度生鮮豬肉銷量受新冠疫情影響下滑，需求目前正在改善。新冠疫情影響出行聚餐，餐飲端消費需求下降，中糧肉食一季度生鮮豬肉銷量2.3萬噸，同比下降49%。公司適應變化，將銷售更多轉向零售渠道，如電商、超市和專賣店等，以抵消餐飲端的負面影響，成效顯著，零售端品牌肉銷售收入佔整體收入45%。隨着疫情受控，消費者外出用餐意欲恢復，我們認為公司生鮮肉銷售業務最壞的時候已經過去，需求正在逐步改善。
投資建議：公司2019年度宣佈派發40%股息，未來承諾只要有盈利，派息率維持在20-70%範圍。在可見的未來，豬價應能維持在中糧肉食成本以上，公司盈利更具穩定性，加上生豬養殖行業中長期持續整合的邏輯，我們認為中糧肉食合理P/E為4倍。基於2020-2022年豬價和出欄量分別為30/27/26元和170/270/380萬頭的假設，預測公司2020-2022年總收入分別為147/197/257億人民幣，歸母淨利潤分別是26.6/35.2/48.1億人民幣，給予目標市值118.4億港元（目標價3元港元），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：非洲豬瘟疫情大範圍爆發，豬價大幅波動，食品安全風險，新冠疫情影響豬肉需求。
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