星展香港料內地全年樓價持平 成交跌5-10%
星展銀行(香港)研究部中國房地產業分析主管王丹表示,在疫情影響下,內地房企年初推盤時或有稍微減價,但由於土地成本未見下滑,相信房企未有太大減價空間,全年樓價料持平,與年初預期維持一致,升跌幅在5%以內;今年全年房地產成交量則可能下跌5%至10%。
她表示,雖然相比2008年金融海嘯時,當局政策調整速度較快,但現階段支持措施仍算謹慎,主要針對企業流動性支援,尚未推出開放限購、預售限制、降首付比例等相對較強力的措施,亦未公開表示鼓勵房地產消費,相信行業今年政策增長空間大。她又指,2019年上市內房平均盈利表現較市場預期低8%,因此將2020至2021年盈測調低約7%,其中今年下調10%至增長24%,2021年增長預測則為18%。
但王丹認為,與其他行業相比內房今年增長前景仍屬不錯,目前約4.8倍估值依然吸引,相信年內板塊股價會穩步上升,並有可能出現一輪獲利離場的調整。該行看好去年積極補充土儲的企業,例如禹洲(01628.HK)及世房(00813.HK),相信可依靠較充裕的可售資源,把握今年銷售機會。
年初房企訂立全年銷售目標,平均按年增長18%至20%,但在疫情影響下目標已下調至約15%,她估計達標並不困難,相信市場未來主要集中發展一、二線城市,三、四線城市則表現平穩,未必可如往年般推動企業高速增長。
商業地產方面,該行分析師何亮表示,商場客流及銷售於3月底已回復至60%,主要房企多提為商戶供1至1.5個月免租對全年租金收入影響8%,全年收入影響10%,但高端品牌需求仍存在,加上新零售需求增長,未感太悲觀。
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