澳優(01717.HK)：回購股權，加強激勵，奶粉業務有望維持高增長，給予“推薦”評級，目標價18港元
機構：長城證券
評級：推薦
目標價：18港元
收購海普諾凱少數股權，認購期權條款彰顯信心，高端牛奶粉有望加快增長。4月9日公司發佈公告，將通過向海普諾凱生物科技增發7000萬股收購海普諾凱剩餘15%股權，總收購價約9.0億港元，佔發行後總股本的4.2%。同時公司授予海普諾凱生物科技認購期權，實質上為股權激勵，雙方約定未來三年海普諾凱事業部2020-2022年每年淨利潤增速不得低於30%，若淨利增速低於（包括等於）20%，則公司有權無償收回2000萬股，若淨利增速在20%-30%，則公司有權無償收回1000萬股。此次股權激勵有利於將海普諾凱事業部團隊的利益與股東綁定，激發團隊積極性，彰顯團隊信心，公司的高端牛奶粉業績有望實現快速增長。
疫情期間海外出口收緊，刺激國產奶粉需求，澳優的國內銷售有望加快。疫情期間，從國內情形來看，物流配送成為奶粉生產及供應的主要障礙，疊加消費者囤貨行為，大部分線下門店出現斷貨現象，線上配送也大部分停工，作為剛需的嬰幼兒奶粉成為稀缺資源。澳優乳業積極採取措施：1）為全國合作的門店提供送貨上門服務，2）線下無法協調送貨的，轉由官方旗艦店快遞發貨，公司的奶粉業務受疫情影響較小。從國外情形來看，隨着海外疫情的發展，多國出現禁止出口的情況，國內消費者對海外奶粉的需求也在下降，刺激了國產奶粉的需求。隨着澳優的自有品牌羊奶粉、牛奶粉的消費認可度不斷提升，奶粉業務有望維持高增長態勢。
產品組合優勢盡顯，益生菌值得期待。公司擁有羊奶粉、牛奶粉、營養品三大業務板塊，採取多產品&品牌矩陣，羊奶粉品牌——佳貝艾特逐漸被消費者認可，新品營嘉成人羊奶粉推出後受到消費者青睞，羊奶粉整體收入有望超過牛奶粉業務；同時公司依靠品牌拉力，深入渠道下沉，奶粉業務進入高增長通道。營養品方面，19年6月公司投資亞洲功能性益生菌研究、生產與應用的領先企業——台灣豐華，打通益生菌上游產業鏈，以新思路進軍益生菌全產業鏈，以進一步豐富集團營養品板塊。打好產品組合拳，為2025年實現“黃金10年”戰略計劃奠定堅實基礎。
盈利預測與投資建議。我們預計公司20-22年營業收入分別為84、104、127億元，同比增長25%、24%、222%，淨利潤分別為11.7、14.6、19.7億元，同比增長33%、26%、35%，對應的EPS分別為0.72、0.91、1.22元。考慮到公司產品不斷得到消費認可，鋪貨率提升，基本面將持續改善，給予公司20年PE為23X，對應目標價為18港元，尚有47%空間，給予“推薦”評級。
風險提示：鋪貨率提升緩慢，原料價格上漲，新品銷售不及預期，國際貿易摩擦增加，食品安全問題。
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