《大行報告》花旗料內銀首季純利按年升6.7% 大型內銀增長放慢至3-4%
花旗發表研究報告,推算內銀首季撥備前盈利升8%,主要由貸款增長、交易收入帶動,稅後盈利升6.7%,而部份銀行需釋放多餘的撥備來緩衝盈利增長。大型銀行盈利增長會放慢至3-4%,部份零售銀行則會有超過10%,包括平安銀行(000001.SZ)、招商銀行(03968.HK)、郵儲行(01658.HK)及寧波銀行(002142.SZ)。
該行指,貸款增長加快是主要動力,但淨息差預期會按季收窄,但招行和興業銀行(601166.SH)會是例外。
該行又指,預期來自基金和財富管理業務銷售會推動代理費用,但會被信用卡費用收入轉弱所抵銷。雖然新冠肺炎疫情影響,但相關影響的行業只佔銀行貸款的12%,中小企貸款亦只有8.9%,銀行預期會為企業貸款延期,因此不良貸款的影響不會於此季浮現。
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