《大行報告》中金升申洲(02313.HK)目標價至114.09元 料疫情或損下半年需求 但長期優勢依舊
中金發表報告表示,申洲國際(02313.HK)自2008年至今實現複合淨利潤增長約20%,股價大幅跑贏行業。該行認為申洲供給側產能擴張、滿產滿銷和量價齊升趨勢,找到了推動其業績增長的動力,並為未來展望提供有效依據。
該行,疫情過後申洲近年來積累的產能擴張將有效帶動業績增長,決定上調對其目標價10%至114.09元,此相當預測2021年市盈率22倍,維持「跑贏行業」評級,認為公司在全球紡織服裝產業鏈中穩定高效的核心競爭力將推動公司進一步擴大市場份額。
中金指,公司預計中長期產能擴張增速將維持在10%至15%的區間。具體而言, 公司預計未來在內地不會有大規模擴張計劃;柬埔寨目前有18,000人規模工廠在建,該行預計2至3年間陸續完成招工。越南2019年中有8,000人規模成衣工廠建成,下半年已開始招工;另有6,000人規模工廠在建,該行預計2021年開始投入運營。因此中金預計2023年隨著新工廠全部完成招工,工人數將超90,000人。相應地,產能擴張將在2020年起逐年加速,接近10至15%指引區間的上端。該行預計公司淨利潤率將可大致維持在目前22%左右的水平。
但該行亦指新冠疫情可能導致申洲今年下半年業績不及該行預期。隨著疫情逐步蔓延至歐美國家,申洲需求側面臨較大不確定性。工廠上半年的生產主要對應疫情前鎖定的訂單這部分受影響程度有限;但下半年隨著歐美主要品牌客戶關閉線下門店,公司預計仍未下單的訂單將面臨減單的風險,如若發生減單,將可能拖累公司一貫以來的滿產滿銷,從而在收入及利潤端都對申洲產生不利影響。
不過,申洲自身供應鏈的穩定性、快速反應能力相比同業能更好的滿足下半年品牌客戶調整訂單的需求,同時自身盈利能力及資產負債表的穩健性可以支撐企業存續無虞,因此該行判斷公司長期競爭優勢依舊。
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