綠城服務(02869.HK):品牌優質,長期投資價值凸顯,給予“增持”評級
機構:中泰證券
投資要點
公司成立於1998年10月,初期主要服務於綠城地產集團,2001年逐漸開始承接第三方項目並進行全國化拓展,2016年7月在港股獨立上市受在管面積增長及園區增值服務拓展驅動,近年業績穩健增長,2015-19年收入及歸母淨利潤CAGR分別達31%和35%。
行業:萬億市場,頭部集中。行業在管面積持續增長,18年達到211億平方米、同增8.2%,考慮自然增長與存量更新,我們估計2030年物管公司在管總面積將達292億平米,住宅基礎物業+業主增值服務市場規模合計將達2.5萬億。與此同時,市場份額向頭部集中趨勢明顯,一方面隨地產企業集中度提升而自然提升,一方面行業併購迭起,進一步推動集中度提升,2018年CR100和CR10分別達到38.9%和11.4%。
在管面積CAGR為26%,儲備面積較為充足。公司在管合同建築面積由2013年的0.55億平米增至2019年的2.12億平米,CAGR為25%。儲備面積由2014年的0.67億平米增至2019年的2.33億平米,CAGR為28%。2019年合約面積對在管面積的覆蓋倍數為2.1,在業內處於中上水平。
未來增長展望:基礎物管穩健增長,期待增值服務放量。基礎物管業務方面,品牌優勢明顯,第三方外拓能力較強,儲備面積2.33億平米,對在管面積覆蓋倍數達1.1,驅動在管面積穩健增長,且項目具備穩定提價的能力。
增值服務業務方面,自2007年佈局並藉助科技賦能不斷深化,五大板塊佈局,業態豐富,目前貢獻收入佔比近20%。短期重點拓展早教和高端家政業務,長期佈局老少健康為主的健康及養老領域,預計隨着滲透率不斷提升,增值服務板塊有望釋放更多的增長潛力,對業績產生正面影響。
投資建議:公司在物管行業以高端品質定位和優質品牌形象著稱,長期有望獲得更高的品牌溢價,儲備面積充足,第三方外拓能力較強,穩定提價,支撐公司基礎物管業務保持較快的增長。同時園區增值服務佈局多年,不斷深化,有進一步放量的潛力。預計公司業績增長整體較為穩健,預計2020/21/22年歸母淨利潤6.26/8.35/10.55億元、同增31%/33%/26%。考慮公司在物管行業的龍頭地位,首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級。
風險提示:物業管理費市場化提價進度不及預期;園區增值服務業務拓展進度及業績貢獻不達預期;第三方外拓項目佔比較高,若將來競爭力下滑,不能持續從市場上獲得新的物管項目,則在管面積規模增長存在一定風險。

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