民生銀行(01988.HK)：利差擴闊，改善淨息差水平，維持“買入”評級
機構：農業銀行
評級：買入
加大撥備限制盈利增長。民行2019年淨利潤為人民幣538.19億元，同比增長6.9％，遠低於其總營收同比增長率15.3％的水平。明顯地，民行2019年撥備費用同比增長36％，限制了其盈利增速。事實上，我們注意到民行的資產質量仍然保持良好，不良貸款率同比下降20個基點至1.56％，或在19年四季度環比下降11個基點。我們認為，加大撥備主要由於在當前宏觀不確定因素下，民行的風險緩衝能力相對較弱，截至19年12月末，民行的撥備率和撥備覆蓋率分別為2.43％和155.5％。假設民行的不良貸款率在20E/21E温和上升6個基點/8個基點，我們預計民行在20E和21E的撥備費用規模將與19年相若，而其撥備率和撥備覆蓋率在21E末將為2.66％和156.5％。
利差改善,提高淨息差水平。由於民行在2019年的貸存利差和銀行間資產負債利差分別同比增長1個基點和29個基點，其淨息差同比上升21個基點至1.94％，亦較我們早前預測高8個基點。考慮民行在民企及小微企長久以來的競爭優勢，我們預期民行將對這些領域繼續加大資源投放更大，推動其20E淨息差同比再上升7個基點至2.01％。然而，受到平均貸款利率的下降趨勢和LPR改革影響，民行的淨息差在21E或同比收窄7個基點至1.94%。這將拉動民行的淨利息收入在2019A-21E間以5.5％的複合年增長率上升。
2020年戰略方向。另一方面，民行明確其20E的6個戰略方向：1）加快民企戰略落地；2）通過科技賦能帶動零售跨越式發展；3）推進資產管理業務轉型；4）提升問題資產專業化經營成效；5）推動科技金融戰略落地及規模化創新，以及6）抓住體制和機制創新的動力。淨息差有望進一步上升;維持買入評級。考慮民行淨息差勢頭強勁及在20E和21E較穩定的撥備規模，我們預計民行的淨利潤在2019A-21E的複合年增長率將為5.1％。現時，其H/A股的估值為0.47倍/0.52倍20E市淨率。我們的戈登增長模型H/A股目標價相等於20E市淨率的0.58x/0.63x。維持買入評級。
風險因素：1)在強監管和政策主導的環境下發生政策方向出現急劇變化;2)來自非銀行及外資金融機構的競爭加劇;3)特定區域的資產質量快速嚴重惡化;4)貸款需求急劇下降;5)對新業務和個別快速增長業務的政策風險提高;6)新冠肺炎疫情持續爆發。
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