中國建材(03323.HK)：“水泥+“業務快速發展，資產負債表持續改善，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
事件：公司2019年實現營業收入2534億元（人民幣，下同），同比+15.7%，歸母淨利潤109.74億元，同比+38.4%。
“水泥+”業務快速發展，新材料業務穩健增長。水泥分部中，水泥及熟料銷量3.91億噸，同比+6.0%，噸收入333元，同比+14元；商混銷量1.1億立方米，同比+16.5%，每方收入465元，同比+33元；骨料銷量5238萬噸，同比+48.5%，噸收入59元，同比+9元；水泥分部毛利率上升0.8pct至32.6%。新材料分部中，風電葉片業務銷量10.8GW，同比+34.7%，葉片均價65.7萬元/MW，同比+6.0%；玻纖行業受產能集中釋放和中美貿易摩擦影響已處景氣底部，銷量247.8萬噸，同比+12.1%，均價4890元/噸，同比-10.3%；石膏板行業處景氣底部，銷量19.66億平，同比+5.2%，市佔率進一步提升。
投資建議：往後展望，我們認為由於供給格局的持續優化，水泥高價格具有較強韌性，行業持續高景氣運行將使得公司水泥業務保持高盈利，將同步帶來資產質量優化（產能置換，由小換大由弱換強）和資產負債率下降財務費用率下降，從而提升公司ROE中樞；同時“水泥+”中骨料產能將持續擴大，成為新的增長極和具備護城河的業務；新材料業務中玻纖、石膏板行業景氣已處於底部區域，公司競爭力較強，未來將享受週期回升彈性；風電葉片來到需求大年，工程服務業務穩步推進，防水業務開始並表並且快速發展。我們預計公司2020-2022年EPS分別為1.65/2.17/2.55元/股，按最新收盤價對應PE為5.0/3.8/3.3x，對應PB估值分別為0.76/0.66/0.57x。我們維持合理價值為12.38港元/股的觀點不變，對應2020年1.0xPB，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：基建和房地產投資增速下行；行業供給格局惡化等。
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