李寧(02331.HK)：精細化零售管理推動李寧進入“新增長階段“，給予“買入”評級
機構：開源證券
評級：買入
盈利預測及投資建議：首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級
我們預計公司2020/2021/2022年收入同比增長9.41%/25.73%/19.82%，達到151.74/190.78/228.59億元；預計公司2020/2021/2022年歸母淨利潤同比增長6.87%/31.32%/29.97%，達到16.02/21.04/27.35億元，EPS分別為0.66/0.87/1.13元，對應當前股價PE分別為32.5/24.8/19.1倍，李寧是中國國產運動品牌龍頭，2017年推出“中國李寧”後，其獨特的品牌DNA得到年輕一代消費羣體的認同，2018、2019年業績維持着高速增長，我們認為2020年往後，公司進入依靠精細化零售推動的新增長階段，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
2019年業績靚麗，各營運指標全方位持續改善
隨着產品持續創新、渠道動態優化，品牌DNA強化，2019李寧的整體業績亮眼，銷售收入同比增長32%達到138.7億元，毛利率提升一個百分點達到49.1%，經營利潤率進一步提升至11.1%，扣除2.34億一次性收益後，淨利潤率提升2.3個百分點至9.1%。業績持續增長的同時，公司的各項運營指標亦持續改善。
李寧主要發展階段回顧：總結不同市場環境下的得與失
公司2011年-2014年經歷庫存危機，在此過程中進行了一系列品牌、渠道的改革探索，“品牌重塑“計劃伴隨着提價失敗而告終；自2015年李寧先生迴歸後，公司進行了一系列對庫存、渠道的整改工作；2017年第三季度開始，李寧的同店及流水增長開始恢復至穩定的正增長，延續至2019年。
新一輪增長的主要動力來自於更加精細化的零售管理變革
基於1）利潤率增長的主要動力從“控費”到“經營槓桿提升”，2）批發渠道收入佔比自2012年以來首次提升，經銷商信心提升，3）新任命具有豐富零售經驗的高阪武史先生為聯席CEO，我們認為公司已經從業績修復的故事進入到“新增長階段”，業績增長將更加聚焦於提升發展質量、運營效率。
風險提示：1）全球新型冠狀肺炎疫情未能得到有效控制，零售環境下半年仍然嚴峻；2）疫情帶來行業競爭加劇，李寧品牌終端折扣力度加強，整體毛利率受壓；3）一季度所積累的渠道庫存未能得到有效控制。
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