《大行报告》大和升电能(00006.HK)目标价至52.5元 料股息回报在同业中最高
大和发表报告指,自3月23日基金赎回导致恐慌性抛售以来,电能实业(00006.HK)的股价已累积反弹19%,对比期内英镑兑港元汇率上升5%。该行认为,电能今年股息率在过去两周中由6.7%下降至5.6%,但认为当见疲情影响各大公司派息,相信电能的收益率仍具有吸引力,股息回报在同业中最高,料今年股息预测达5.6厘。
该行指,电能管理层在电话会议中表示,将维持长期稳定派息。对於汇率波动问题,该行相信由於电能经常性收入有52%来自英国,22%来自澳洲,而英镑及澳元年初至今分别贬值7%及14%,预期对该公司盈利产生负面影响。惟大和又指出,随着英镑兑港元汇率近期回升,将2020至2022年每股盈测提高2%,预计对经营现金流每年仅影响约4亿元。
大和指,虽然低利率抑压股票成本和加权平均资本成本成本,但电能管理层对整体规范收益未感乐观,因业务收益重置涉及高度政治化,风险溢价不足。
该行认为,尽管长和(00001.HK)一直拥有强大的资产负债表,但亦难以在疫情期间作并购,在接近零利率环境下,电能近期股价回升,对其重申「跑赢大市」评级,更指其股息率将是业内投资者的避风港,将目标价由48元上调至52.5元,当中假设英镑汇率升至9.6。
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