贏家時尚(03709.HK)：全年營收符合預期，並表及雙主品牌助力增長
機構：華金證券
事件贏家時尚披露全年業績。2019年實現營收41.57億元/+64.80%，淨利潤4.06億元/+48.70%，扣非歸母淨利3.92元/+56.07%，每股收益0.69元，擬派末期股息每股16港仙。
全年營收符合預期，並表及雙主品牌助力增長：營收端，全年營收符合預期，19年公司營收大幅增長近65%，一方面源於並表KEENREACH推升規模，另一方面源於原有主品牌系列珂萊蒂爾、拉珂蒂、珂斯實現15%左右的營收增長。淨利端，收入規模增長帶動公司利潤增長，中高端女裝主業維持較高毛利率，淨利率略有降低一是源於KEENREACH淨利率略低於原業務，二是並表及強化研發投入推升管理費用率。
直營佔據較大份額，並表推動各渠道營收增長：渠道方面，贏家時尚持續以直營門店經營為主，2019年並表娜爾思等三個品牌之後，公司合計門店達1697家，較上年度增加835家/97%。其中直營門店合計1257家，加盟門店440家。分渠道看，中高端女裝品類需要消費體驗，線下一直是品類的主力渠道，2019年贏家時尚線下渠道實現營收約37.48億元，佔比約90%，其中直營渠道佔營收約79%、加盟佔比約11%。其中電商渠道受益於線上線下融合發展趨勢以及公司逐步打通各渠道庫存，取得超90%的營收增速，佔比提升至2019年的9.7%。
雙主品牌系列發展良好，代理品牌有所調整：分品牌看，2019年公司珂萊蒂爾相關係列、娜爾思相關係列和其他小品牌營收分別佔比61%、32%、7%。其中珂萊蒂爾、拉珂蒂、珂斯營收分別增長15%、15%、16%，按照上下半年營收45:55估算，娜爾思、恩靈、奈蔻品牌2019年下半年並表營收同比增長約18%，雙主品牌系列繼續保持15%左右的規模增長。另外在整體消費環境欠佳、行業競爭加劇的背景下，公司旗下部分代理品牌規模有所調整。
投資建議：女裝佔據服裝市場半壁江山，中高端女裝市場分散，近年來女裝市場延續個位數增長。贏家時尚是國內中高端女裝市場中具有較強競爭力的公司，雙主品牌珂萊蒂爾、娜爾思的銷售規模均躋身行業前十。疫情影響下，贏家時尚有望憑藉直營模式執行力取得較行業更好的表現，我們預計公司2020年有望在KEENREACH全年並表推動下實現約33%的營收增長，以及約27%的淨利潤增長。目前公司PE（2020E）約為10倍，建議積極關注。
風險提示：疫情影響上半年可選消費表現；新品牌推廣及渠道擴張或不及預期；行業庫存壓力較大或影響公司盈利能力。
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