天倫燃氣(01600.HK)2019年度業績點評：煤改氣穩步推進，看好公司成長性，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆事件：天倫燃氣發佈2019年度業績公告。2019年公司實現收入65.5億元，同比增長28.1%；股東利潤7.9億元，同比增長38.7%；核心利潤（扣除其他虧損淨額等項目）8.1億元，同比增長20.6%。
◆零售氣量高速增長，毛差環比改善：2019年公司天然氣總銷售量15.7億立方米，同比增長21.2%；其中零售氣量（扣除氣源貿易）9.8億立方米，同比增長22.2%。分用户類型來看，2019年工商業用氣量5.2億元，同比增長26.5%，有效驅動整體氣量增長；零售氣量中工商業用氣量佔比52.3%，同比提升1.8個百分點，氣源結構進一步優化。2019年城燃項目平均毛差0.55元/立方米，同比小幅下滑0.01元/立方米，但較2019H1提升0.01元/立方米。我們判斷公司2019H2毛差環比改善可能與冬季採購氣價的相對温和漲幅有關。此外，2019年公司新增3個城市燃氣項目；在燃氣行業內生增長邊際放緩的情況下，我們預計新項目外延併購將為公司注入成長動能。
◆鄉鎮煤改氣支撐接駁增長：2019年公司新接駁住宅用户83.9萬户，同比增長35.7%。作為接駁增長的重要支撐，2019年公司鄉鎮煤改氣新接駁用户57.8萬户，略低於我們的預期，同比增長51.1%。2019年公司住宅用户接駁單價同比總體保持穩定，但受增量用户的結構性影響，2019年公司接駁業務毛利率46.8%，同比降低2.9個百分點。作為公司近年來的重要發展戰略之一，我們判斷鄉鎮煤改氣項目的有序推進仍將支撐公司成長。
◆盈利預測與投資評級：考慮到公司2019年業績及疫情對於用氣需求及煤改氣等施工進度的影響，下調2020、2021年的預測歸母淨利潤至9.5、11.8億元（調整前分別為10.5、12.3億元），新增2022年的預測歸母淨利潤12.9億元。預計公司2020-2022年的EPS分別為0.95、1.18、1.29元，當前股價對應PE分別為5、4、4倍。看好公司高於同業的成長性，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：天然氣銷售量低於預期，煤改氣項目進度低於預期，天然氣採購成本大幅上漲的風險；配氣費、接駁費進一步下調的風險等。
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