旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)：業績穩增長，聚焦一二線深耕成果顯現，維持公司“買入”評級，目標價7.5HKD
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.5HKD
事件：公司公佈2019年年度業績，報告期內確認收入547.66億元，同比增值29%；實現股東應占核心淨利潤69.03億元，同比增長25%；2019年公司實現25.1%的毛利率和12.6%的核心淨利率，較2018年數據分別+0.1pct，-0.5pct。2019年公司合計派息38港分/股，其中包含4港分/股的特別股息，分紅比例達41%。
銷售破兩千億規模，土儲量足而質優。公司堅持一二線城市為主的佈局，區域深耕成果凸現，2019年公司實現2006億元的合約銷售金額，同比增長32%，超額完成原定銷售目標；與此同時，公司的簽約回款率進一步上升，由2018年的87%上升至92%。銷售高增的同時，公司把握投資窗口，2019年新增1520萬方建面的土儲，對應2407億元貨值，且權益比例由2018年的58%上升至65%；截止至2020年2月底，公司擁有總土儲6540萬方，總貨值達9880億元,其中一二線、準二線城市佔比高達87%。公司預計2020年可推售貨值達3800億元，對應的銷售目標為2300億元，同比增長15%。
負債率合理可控，融資成本維持低位。截止至2019年底，公司債務總額1037億元，淨負債率68.5%，其中一年內到期債務僅佔20.4%，現金短債比為2.7倍，短期償債無憂；公司的加權融資成本為6.0%，較2018年上升0.2個百分比，繼續維持民營房企中較低水平。
林氏家族再度增持，彰顯中長期發展信心。林氏家族於近期分別以5.25港元/股的價格增持了100萬股公司股份和購買了100萬美元的公司債券。考慮公司成立20週年所派發的特別股息和實控人的股債雙增持，我們對公司中長期的發展充滿信心。
維持公司買入評級。考慮到公司2019年銷售情況及土地儲備，預測2020-2022年EPS分別為1.00、1.23、1.47元，對應的PE為5.0、4.0、3.4倍，維持公司7.5HKD的目標價。
風險提示：項目結轉不及預期，限購政策超預期收緊
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