安踏體育(02020.HK)2019年報點評：疫情短期衝擊有限，公司長期價值凸顯，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆公司收入實現快速增長，收購Amer影響淨利增速。2019年公司實現收入339.28億元（人民幣，下同）、同增40.8%，歸母淨利潤53.4億元、同增30.3%，EPS1.987元。公司主要品牌收入均保持較快增長，收購AmerSports帶來虧損約6.3億元（主要為收購一次性費用、PPA（合併對價分攤評估）等影響）導致淨利增速低於收入，FILA佔比提升促毛利率同增2.4PCT至55.0%。
◆安踏、FILA影響力持續提升、渠道數量擴張，20年將更注重增長質量。公司持續加大研發、設計、營銷投入提升品牌影響力，渠道數量繼續擴張。19年安踏、FILA、其他品牌分別實現收入174.50億、147.70億、17.08億，同增21.8%、73.9%、33.3%。19年末安踏（含兒童）門店10516家、增4.56%，FILA門店1951家、增18.10%。公司構建零售、供應鏈、後台支持三大共享平台，將優化渠道結構、注重單店產出、推動高質量增長。20年末安踏目標門店數量1.02-1.03萬家、減少300家，FILA門店2000-2100家、增100家（19年增300家）。
◆新冠肺炎疫情影響公司收入增長，Amer預計帶來一定虧損。新冠肺炎疫情導致公司2-3月整體流水受到影響同比下滑，公司預計20Q1銷售流水下降20%左右，其中安踏、FILA預計下降20%-30%、10%-20%，預計20H2安踏流水恢復雙位數增長，FILA恢復30%+增長。據我們保守測算：2020年疫情導致公司收入增速較此前預期下滑18PCT；假設Amer各區域受疫情影響時間為兩個季度，預計疫情將導致20年Amer收入損失6.09億歐元，利潤略有虧損、考慮PPA影響預計將導致安踏投資收益減少2.32億人民幣。
◆短期影響不改長期邏輯，本土運動鞋服龍頭仍有成長空間。疫情帶來短期負面影響，但難改行業與公司長期邏輯，疫情結束後體育健身需求將增加、同時受益政策支持，户外運動消費有望反彈，同時本次疫情推動國民認同感提升、加速行業出清，利好本土服裝品牌成長。受疫情影響下調20-22年EPS預測為2.08/2.72/3.21元，20年受外部事件影響業績增速較低，21年利潤增速有望反彈，目前股價對應20年24倍PE，已反映市場悲觀預期，具備長期投資價值，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：疫情影響超預期，併購整合不達預期，渠道庫存出現惡化等。
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