吉利汽車(00175.HK)2019年年報點評：業績低於預期，國際化戰略全面開啟，維持買入評級
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
2019年業績低於預期，分紅比例提升至25%。公司公告2019年實現營業總收入977.1億元，同比下滑8.6%，淨利潤81.9億元人民幣，同比下滑35%。單看2H19，公司收入498.4億元，同比下滑5.8%，淨利潤為41.8億元，同比下滑28.9%，低於我們預期，原因包括：1）受新工廠投產產能利用率降低、終端促銷力度加大影響，2H19吉利品牌毛利率為16.9%，同環比下滑3pct、1pct；2）2H19領克合資公司淨利潤為2.2億元，同比下滑32.3%，主要受折舊攤銷壓力增加、新能源車型銷售不及預期影響。公司2019年底總現金192.8億元，同比增長22.5%，計劃DPS為HKD0.25元，分紅比例提升至25%。公司將2020年資本支出計劃下調11%至68億元，為2017年以來最低水平。
2020年銷量目標不變，出口業務成為亮點。儘管多家車企考慮疫情影響已下調銷量目標，公司基於新品規劃和對出口市場的樂觀展望，依然維持2020年141萬台的銷量目標。新品方面，豪越，ICON、緊湊型轎車FS11，領克05、領克06，和純電SUV幾何C將陸續投放市場，多為走量車型。出口方面，領克將在年底進入歐洲市場，馬來西亞市場方面寶騰計劃導入繽越和一款MPV，而東歐市場將導入第二款車型繽越，首批產品已開始組裝。我們預計出口業務成為公司下一個增長點。
疫情和產能調整影響短期銷量，市佔率繼續提升趨勢不改，維持買入評級。我們將2020/2021年淨利潤預估下調9%/6%至89/124億元，反映疫情對銷量的衝擊，以及公司產能調整進度緩於預期的影響。另一方面，公司今年1-2月市佔率提升至7.5%，我們終端調研顯示公司3月銷售恢復情況也明顯好於行業平均水平，中長期市佔率提升趨勢不改。基於盈利下調，我們DCF模型得出的目標價為16.1港元，隱含2020/2021年15/12倍市盈率，維持買入評級。
風險提示：新產品銷售不及預期、價格戰升級、產品召回風險。
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