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晨星:疫情對長期經濟影響輕微 周期性消費、金融及房地產股迎買入機會
阿思達克 04-07 17:47
晨星(Morningstar)發表《2020年第二季亞洲股票市場展望報告》,當中列出分析師在10個主要行業中的首選股票。

在周期性消費股方面,疫情導致商店關閉,中國服裝零售商2月份銷售額下降了近80%。隨著疫情在中國逐漸得到控制,中國大部分服裝商店已經重新開門營業,3月底銷售額已達到之前水平的60%左右。首選安踏體育(02020.HK)及銀河娛樂集團(00027.HK)。金融股方面,首選工商銀行(01398.HK)。該行指,降低了新加坡和香港上市銀行的公允價值,並考慮到不良貸款水平將上升,從而導致信貸成本增加,認為股價已經反映了負面影響。

該行又提到,不少內地房地產企業報告稱截至2月底的銷售額大幅下降,但預計對整體盈利影響可控,在內地擁有購物中心的地產商亦指出客流量已逐漸增加。香港市場由於中期利率較低,人們對香港未來的信心依然堅定,房地產市場不太可能出現大規模下跌。地產行業首選股為新鴻基地產(00016.HK)及萬科企業(02202.HK)。

晨星亞洲股票研究總監陳麗子指出,雖然短期形勢嚴峻,但預計疫情對長期經濟影響輕微。各國央行已經將利率降至接近於零的水平,增強流動性,而各地政府也大力提供財政政策支持,這兩項舉措均有利於股市。該行預計隨著一些地區的疫情相對得到控制,經濟將分兩階段恢復。其覆蓋的亞洲公司股價為晨星估算的公允價值0.80倍。以行業計,周期性消費、金融服務和房地產目前價值最高。

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