《大行報告》中金:水泥需求穩步恢復 看好海螺水泥及中國建材
中金發表報告指,內地水泥行業需求穩步恢復,當前旺季啟動的節奏整體符合該行預期,4月初南方水泥市場需求基本恢復至8至9成,北方需求亦迅速恢復,近期多間長三角龍頭擬發布熟料價格提漲通知,亦釋放積極信號。如4月至5月天氣條件良好,預期水泥漲價節奏有望逐步開啟,趕工需求有望釋放,支撐水泥企業彌補今年首季損失的銷量。全年來看,在逆週期調節政策的支撐下,預期疫情影響對水泥龍頭業績影響有限,全年噸毛利仍有望維持高位。
該行表示,近期多間長三角龍頭擬發布熟料價格提漲通知,為節後首次提漲,落實情況仍待觀察。市場此前擔憂在高庫位下的需求恢復期,東北和進口低價熟料持續進入,可能使長三角區域熟料面臨較大價格壓力。
中金又稱,長三角龍頭企業主動上調價格顯示低價熟料進入影響可控,彰顯了區域龍頭對下游需求恢復、熟料及水泥穩價的信心。同時,熟料價格上調有望對水泥成本端形成支撐,預期到4月中旬,隨著水泥庫容比逐步回落至正常水平,華東市場有望迎來第一輪提價。
該行認為,水泥龍頭企業全年盈利有望維持韌性,看好海螺水泥(00914.HK) 及中國建材(03323.HK),建議關注華潤水泥(01313.HK),三企評評均為「跑贏行業」,目標價分別67.14元、10.77元及11.8元。
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