佳兆業集團(01638.HK)：淨負債率大幅改善，舊改轉換提速，維持“買入”評級，標價5.50港元
機構：西南證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.50港元
業績總結：公司]近日發佈2019年報，報告期實現營業收入480.2億，同比增長24.1%，實現歸母淨利潤45.9億，同比增長67.1%，建議派發期末股息每股10港仙，全年派息每股13港仙。
業績略超預期，淨利率穩中有升：報告期公司開發銷售結轉收入增長21.5%至438.5億，結轉毛利率保持穩定，毛利增長24.3%至138.3億，儘管銷售費率提高但財務費率有大幅回落，導致淨利潤增長26.4至41.6億，另外由於少數股東損益為負導致歸母淨利潤大增67.1%至45.9億，業績表現略超預期。整體毛利率為28.8%，淨利率為8.7%，相比2018年小幅提升0.2pp。
2020年推貨質量較高，1000億目標相對穩健：2019年公司實現權益合約銷售881.2億，同比增長25.8%，銷售單價18983元每平米，同比增長4.0%。從銷售貢獻來看，大灣區佔比61%，環渤海、華中、長三角和華西分別佔比13%、10%、9%和7%，按城市能級劃分一二線合計佔比90%。2020年公司可售貨值約1800億，其中大灣區佔比55%、長三角佔比22%，一線佔比37%、二線佔比52%，如按56%的去化率即可實現1000億的銷售目標。
舊改轉換提速，政策利好不斷：2019年9月以來政府持續出台了一些加快推進舊改的政策，公司新舊改資源的獲取、舊改向貨值的轉換均有提速。2019年公司新增權益土地建面367.5萬方，其中舊改項目佔比16%。截止2019年末，公司土儲2700萬方（權益76%），貨值5300億（大灣區佔比66%），其中舊改部分670萬方（含回遷房建安在內土地成本8200元每平米），另外公司舊改項目佔地面積同比增長33%至4000萬方，其中深圳和廣州各佔27%和36%。
淨負債率大幅改善，政策利好不斷：報告期末，公司淨負債率大幅降低92pp至144%，總體有息負債1172億，平均融資成本8.8%，其中境外佔比51%，一年內到期約61億人民幣，償付壓力並不大。
盈利預測與評級：預計公司2020-2022年EPS分別為人民幣1.01/1.29/1.58元，對應的動態市盈率為2.5/2.0/1.6倍。公司是大灣區舊改龍頭，持續受益區域市場和舊改政策利好，兼具負債改善彈性，我們給予公司2020年5倍PE估值，對應目標價5.50港元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：舊改轉換或低於預期，融資成本或居高不下等。
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