綠城服務(02869.HK)：業績符合預期，期待深蹲起跳，維持增持評級，目標價9.87HKD
機構：東北證券
評級：增持
目標價：9.87HKD
事件：公司公佈2019年年度業績，全年實現營業收入85.82億元，同比增長27.9%；淨利潤為4.72億元，同比上升1.4%，剔除以權益結算的股份支付費用和除税後影響經調整的淨利潤為5.20億元，較2018年該值同比增長7.0%；每股派發股息0.075港元，與2018年持平。
業績與前期預期一致，主要受新會計準則和銷售費用影響。2019年，公司實現綜合毛利率18.0%，較2018年提升了0.2pct，實現毛利15.47億元，同比增長29.17%，與收入增速相符；2019年，公司產生了75萬元的融資成本，而2018年則淨收入1813萬元，主要是由於公司採用了新租賃準則使得年內新增租賃負債財務費用3830萬元；此外，2019年大力拓展新零售、物業資產管理業務，以及教育業務新增加的成本導致公司銷售成本大幅增長154.5%，達1.51億元。考慮到公司園區服務已初步完成業務調整和佈局，預計未來兩年的期間費用率將穩中有降。
口碑鑄造強而有力的市場拓展能力。2019年，公司在管面積淨新增4200萬方，達到2.12億方，在大杭州區域、長三角區域繼續保持明顯優勢，兩大區域在在管面積中分別佔比21.2%、38.7%，更是貢獻了基礎物管收入的30.3%和35.5%。依託自身領先於同行的社會口碑，公司繼續保持了儲備面積的快速增長，截止至2019年底，儲備面積達2.33億方，淨增長4100萬方，儲備面積/在管面積比值為1.1倍，較2018年底僅下降0.03。面臨競爭越發激烈的市場，公司依舊保持了較為明顯的領先優勢，“長跑型”選手實力可見一斑。
儘管公司作為口碑、品質物管公司的龍頭，但考慮業績增速和當前估值，維持增持評級。由於園區業務的調整、佈局仍未完全完成且早教業務尚處於投入階段，下調公司2020-2022年預測EPS至0.22、0.28、0.35元，對應的PE分別為37、29、23倍，給予目標價9.87HKD.
風險提示：內生增長不及預期，園區業務成本過快上升
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