《大行報告》美銀證券料本港樓價今年跌15%至20% 削地產股目標價一成
美銀證券表示,基於全球經濟增長前景轉弱,料本港主要住宅樓價今年將下滑15%至20%,寫字樓租金將跌10至20%,料零售租金下跌5%至20%,並估計本港發展物業的毛利率會由今年36%,回落至2022年27%。該行估計本港零售業會面臨4至5個月衰退。
該行決定下調本港地產股目標價10%,降每股資產淨值預測4%,調低本港地產股於2020年至2022年每股盈利預測4%。長實集團(01113.HK)目標價由61元降至53元、新地(00016.HK)目標價由134元降至126元、領展(00823.HK)目標價由87元降至78元。
美銀證券指,本港地產股具鞏固槓桿組合,但若今年下行趨勢持續,關注恆地(00012.HK)、新世界發展(00017.HK)及嘉里建設(00683.HK)派息情況。該行估計本港今明兩年GDP將按年分別跌4%及升1.9%。
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