九毛九(09922.HK)：太二表現亮眼，公司費用率控制得當
機構：興業證券
太二收入/經營利潤大增136.4%/182.8%，九毛九表現穩健。公司2019全年營收26.87億元，同比增長42%；其中九毛九營收為13.72億元，同比增2.8%，收入佔比為51%；得益於快速的擴張，太二營收為12.77億元，同比136.4%，收入佔比增至47.5%，年內太二門店數同比增93.8%至126間，淨增61家門店。
原材料成本率上升1.2pct，但被其他費用率下降所抵消，公司經營利潤率+2pct。公司期內原材料成本率同比+1.2pct至36.7%。但受益於公司食材準備流程的標準化提升，期內員工成本率同比下降1.8pct。而隨着九毛九及太二的規模效應逐步凸顯，公司SG&A、租金成本及能源費用率分別按年-0.5pct/+0.1pct/-1pct，營運效率提升。整體看，公司期內經營利潤同比+58.9%至5億元，其中九毛九/太二經營利潤同比+5.6%/+182.8%至2.4/2.7億元。公司期內淨利同比增151.6%至1.86億元，若不考慮權益付款開支上市開支，公司期內經調整純利潤同比增長174.7%至2.17億元。
全年淨開店95家，ASP提升，翻枱相對穩定。門店擴張：公司現共有336家門店。2019年全年淨新開95家門店，其中九毛九淨減少4家，太二淨增加61家，2顆雞蛋煎餅淨增加36家，慫及那未大叔是大廚各增1家。同店銷售：FY19同店總數為161家，其中九毛九120家，太二32家，2顆雞蛋煎餅9家。受益於ASP增加，九毛九FY19同店銷售額同比增0.2%至11.39億；太二受益於ASP及客流量提升，同店銷售增4%至4.57億。而受競爭加劇及客流下降，2顆雞蛋煎餅同店收入同比-5.2%，但由於其體量較小，對公司整體表現不造成影響。ASP：九毛九/太二的人均消費分別同比+9.4%/4,2%至58元/75元。而公司新品牌那未大叔是大廚ASP高達132元，公司各品牌覆蓋多價格帶。翻枱率：受快速拓展、新店爬坡影響，九毛九/太二全年翻枱率均下降0.1次/天至2.3次/天及4.8次/天。
投資建議：公司期內太二繼續發力，在快速擴張背景下，翻枱率僅小幅波動0.1pct，實屬正常。太二淨開店數略勝預期。截止3月27日，太二逾9成的門店已恢復運營，九毛九逾13%門店已恢復。短期看，公司通過太二階段性的外賣彌補了餐廳收入，太二整體營收已顯着恢復。此外，公司亦維持2020年太二開業計劃，由於太二僅需一個月便能打平，投資回報週期為同行一半，預計FY20太二的擴張有望繼續帶動公司快速前行。長期看，我們認為此次事件會加速行業洗牌，相較於小型餐館，連鎖餐企在上下游議價、渠道控制、員工管理及資金方面均頗具優勢，品牌效益會日益加強。九毛九品牌線豐富，覆蓋多價格帶及消費人羣，加上公司日益完善的中央廚房及配送供應鏈，公司有望在現有基礎上，複製太二的成功經驗以實現新品牌孵化及擴張。
風險提示：1、食品安全；2、成本顯着上升；3、競爭加劇；4、新店不及預期
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