粵海投資(00270.HK)：核心業務穩健，派息持續提升，維持公司的“審慎增持”評級，目標價為18.55港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：18.55港元
事件：2019年全年業績符合預期，派息繼續實現增長。公司2019年實現收入166.9億港元，同比增加24.9%，主要是新增水資源項目和物業銷售板塊增長的貢獻。全年股東淨利潤為50.4億港元，同比增加0.6%，利潤增長小於銷售增長，主要是因為增加的收入中較多為利潤率不高的業務，同時所得税開支也隨物業銷售的增加而增加。公司全年合計每股派息57.8港仙（2018年:53.5港仙），全年派息率為74.9%（2018年：69.7%）。公司整體業績和派息符合市場預期。
公司核心業務——東深供水項目穩健經營。2019年，東深工程總供水量20.07億噸，向香港供水量佔比34.6%，供水收入佔比77.6%；向深圳東莞供水佔比65.3%，供水收入佔比22.4%。其他水資源項目持續發展。截止2019年末，公司其他水資源項目（附屬+聯營/合營）的供水能力和污水處理能力分別為900萬噸/日和133萬噸/日。
部分業務短期受到公共衞生事件影響。（1）當前情況下購物中心租金收入有影響，預計2020Q2開始逐漸恢復，寫字樓租金收入基本無影響，物業銷售近1-2年迎來較快增長；（2）受到全國收費高速公路免收車輛通行費政策的影響，公司興六高速公路仍處於無收入狀態，恢復時間待定；（3）短期全部5間酒店盈利下滑將較為明顯。
我們的觀點：公司穩健的資產回報和不斷優化的財務狀況將保證未來公司有能力實現每年派息額不斷增長，盈利與估值雙提升仍然是長期趨勢。我們將公司2020-2021年收入分別調高7.6%和9.9%，主要提高了物業銷售方面的預測，但將公司2020-2021年歸母淨利潤分別下調5.3%和0.1%，主要是反映了2020年公共衞生事件對公司部分高利潤率業務的影響，並引入了2022年的盈利預測。我們預計公司2020-2022年收入分別為167.6、186.0和173.3億港元，歸母淨利潤分別為48.7、53.6和54.4億港元，我們維持公司的“審慎增持”評級，SOTP估值法維持公司目標價為18.55港元。
風險提示：1、未來香港水價低於預期；2、新項目建設不及預期；3、公共衞生事件影響加劇
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