国泰君安料汇控(00005.HK)疫情後将恢复正常派息政策 维持「收集」评级
国泰君安证券发表报告表示,汇丰控股(00005.HK)2019年净利润60亿美元按年下降52.7%。公司去年实现列帐基准收入561亿美元按年增长4.3%。公司列帐基准营业支出与列帐预期信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备分别达423亿美元与28亿美元,按年分别升22.2%与56%,列帐基准营业支出的按年增长,主要是由73亿美元商誉减值导致,为净利润大幅下滑的主因。汇控取消2019年第四次中期股息,并在2020年年底前不会派发普通股的季度或中期股息或应计款项,亦不会进行任何普通股回购。
该行指考虑到新冠肺炎疫情的负面影响、全球经济增长下滑压力加大、美联储利率下调、全球贸易摩擦存在不确定性、地缘政治冲突加剧、英国脱欧等问题,预计汇丰控股盈利能力在2020年将较弱。该行预计公司2020、2021及2022年的每股盈利分别为0.424美元、0.490美元和0.609美元,分别按年上涨43.3%、15.4%和24.4%。
该行料汇控於2020年至2022年每股派息各为0.21美元、0.51美元及0.51美元。
国泰君安预计在新冠肺炎疫情得以控制後,汇控将会恢复正常的普通股派息政策,下调公司目标价由69.98港元降至50.81港元,对应2020年及2021年市盈率各15.4倍及13.4倍,今明两年预测市帐率均为0.8倍,维持对公司「收集」投资评级。
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