希望教育(1765.HK):20年业绩增长动力十足
来源:安信国际
希望教育(1765.HK)2019年净利润大幅上涨193%,超预期。2019 年公司收入13.31 亿元,同比增长29%;净利润4.90 亿元,同比增长193%;经调整净利润5.01 亿元,同比增长57%。2019年业绩增长超预期。
主要内容
2020年业绩增长动力十足。截至2019年底公司运营14 所学校,包含5所本科、7所大专、2所技师学校。总的在校生人数为14万人,同比增长62%,是港股第二大高教集团。
我们认为2020年公司业绩仍会继续保持快速增长,主要因为
1、政策利好,高职扩招百万、专升本扩招等有利于优质民办高教招生。目前公司的学校整体利用率为82%,可容纳能力强。
2、2019年新并购4所学校贵州大学科技学院、苏州托普信息职业学院、鹤壁汽车工程职业学院、银川能源学院,四季度完成并表,对2019年业绩贡献小,2020年将产生全年业绩贡献。公司预期银川能源学院、昆山托普学院、鹤壁汽车学院未来三年复合增长分别达到60%、88.6%、89%。未来原有学校和新并购学校都将成为公司的增长引擎。
3、2020年2月公布收购马来西亚英迪学校,完成海外扩张第一步。预计2020下半年可以并表。
现金充裕,未来仍有并购及自建计划。截至2019年底公司现金及现金等价物16.9 亿元,结构性存款10.0 亿元,计息银行及其他借款26.0 亿元,较上年增加4.65 亿元,资产负债率57.9%,较上年增加8.1 个百分点。除去并购外,公司计划自建重庆数字产业职业技术学院、江西樟树中医药职业学院等多所学校。
目标价2.4港元,买入评级。我们维持公司目标价2.4港元,较现价有30%上涨空间,对应20-21年预测市盈率分别为21倍和17.6倍,维持买入评级。
风险提示:政策风险;并购风险
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