美團W(03690.HK)點評公司2019年年報點評：2019年盈利超預期，疫情影響可控，維持“增持”評級，目標價為119.7（+2.3）港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：119.7（+2.3）港元
投資建議：受疫情影響，我們下調美團點評2020-2022年收入分別為1021.43（-243.15）、1539.98（-45.9）和1923.04億元，調整歸母淨利潤分別為3.70（-54.76）、104.75（+7.44）和155.23億元。按分部估值法，我們預計2021年外賣和到店、酒旅業務淨利潤分別為110億元和125億元，按30xPE，10%的折現率，0.92元人民幣/港元，對應2020年的市值為6966億港元，新業務還處於培育期，按0億港元估值。綜上，上調目標價為119.7（+2.3）港元，維持“增持”評級。
美團點評2019年營收975億元，+49.5%；毛利323億元，+114%；毛利率33.1%，+9.9pct；淨利潤22.4億元，經調整利潤46.6億元。2019Q4交易金額1899億元，+37.6%；交易用户數4.5億，+12.5%，活躍商家數620萬，+7.1%。每位交易用户平均年交易27.4筆，+15.4%。
餐飲外賣穩健增長。2019Q4營收157.2億元，+42.9%；實現毛利27.9億元，+89.6%，毛利率17.7%，+4.3pct；Q4日均交易筆數為2723萬，+36.9%；客單價44.8元，變現率14%。交易量延續強勁的增長勢頭，雖季節性因素導致毛利下降，但隨着主導地位的鞏固以及規模效應，毛利率將持續提升。現階段公司更關注增長情況而不是貼現能力，放緩併線節奏以維護長期生態健康。
到店、酒店及旅遊業務表現優異，新業務明顯改善。到店及酒旅2019Q4營收63.6億元，+38.5%；實現毛利56.4億元，+41.4%，毛利率88.8%，+1.9pct，變現率10.5%。交易金額加速增長，主要來源於在線營銷、交易類服務收入和酒店預定業務的增長。新業務2019Q4營收60.9億元，+44.9%；實現毛利12.9億元，毛利率21.2%。新業務環比有明顯的改善，主要來自於網約車司機激勵費用下降，共享單車折舊攤銷結束，虧損收窄，小貸業務增長明顯，超市場預期的影響。
風險提示：外賣行業競爭突然加劇；新業務的持續虧損；經濟下行影響消費等。
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