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A股| 全球搶呼吸機,概念股逆勢拉昇!市場關注疫情發展
格隆匯 04-03 14:20

作者:汪友若 

來源: 上海證券報

本週最後一個交易日,A股小幅低開,隨後維持弱勢走勢。

滬指圍繞2780點附近窄幅震盪,創業板指盤中一度率先翻紅,後又震盪回落。盤面上,農業板塊再度走強,豬肉概念、轉基因概念均有活躍表現。

截至午間收盤,上證指數報2771.34點,下跌0.33%;深證成指報10138.90點,下跌0.40%;創業板指報1911.20點,下跌0.30%。

農業板塊表現強勢

週五早盤,農業食品概念再次走強,板塊細分行業中,豬肉概念、轉基因概念表現活躍。科迪乳業拉昇漲停,金健米業、豐樂種業、新希望等多股跟漲。

其中,龍頭個股金健米業自3月23日至今,漲幅已超過120%。

天風證券表示,海外疫情形勢影響進出口貿易,目前對進口依賴程度較高的水產飼料、畜禽飼料等行業養殖成本可能提升。

東北證券則分析認為,我國三大口糧水稻、小麥、玉米市場相對獨立於國際市場,我國水稻、小麥、玉米對進口依賴性小,與國際糧價聯動性較弱。

近日,國內外對糧食問題高度關注,國家糧食和物資儲備局負責人此前接受了新華社專訪時表示,“綜合分析研判國內糧食生產、流通、消費情況,我們認為,個別國家限制出口,對國內麪粉、大米等口糧供應基本沒有影響,我們有信心、有能力保障國內糧食供應。過度恐慌、搶購糧油,大可不必。”

市場關注全球疫情發展

此外,境外疫情緊張形勢尚未緩解。美國約翰斯·霍普金斯大學2日發佈的最新統計數據顯示,全球新冠肺炎確診病例累計超過100萬例。

受此影響,早盤口罩概念、呼吸機概念等相關醫療板塊表現活躍,搜於特、道恩股份拉昇封板,魚躍醫療漲逾3%。

安信證券首席經濟學家高善文發文表示,目前最大的變數還是疫情會如何演化,如果全球疫情管控較為理想,再加上政策干預的作用,下半年經濟增速會快速恢復,部分地補償前期的下降。

從資本市場來看,高善文認為,美國金融市場最壞的時期已經過去,出現金融危機的概率並不大。接下來市場的焦點將轉向疫情的變化、公司基本面的好壞以及一些長期結構性問題的修復,但無論如何,由於流動性的短暫枯竭,前段時間的暴跌可能過度透支和定價了這些負面因素的影響。

中信證券明明債券研究團隊表示,預計4月中旬將出現全球疫情拐點,二季度料將開啟疫情防控後期階段和全球刺激政策接力的時代。政策落地帶來的行業機會和各產業的非同步修復料將是資產配置的主線。

中金公司認為,過去一個月,海外因素成為影響境內市場資產價格的主因,包括風險偏好傳導和流動性衝擊。但向前看,隨着國內疫情防控態勢持續向好,資產配置主線也將逐漸過渡到“增長”。“增長”具體包括兩個層次:一是當下的經濟數據和預期差,二是此後的對衝政策和對未來經濟走勢的預期。

從配置性價比看,中金公司表示,股票好於債券,但考慮到海外疫情的拐點還未出現,現階段股債均衡配置,保持組合分散化可能是更優策略,建議投資者繼續超配黃金、利率債,標配信用債、A股,低配商品。

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