一文了解券商於匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)停派息後最新觀點及目標價
英倫銀行要求英國銀行因應新型冠狀病毒疫情對經濟衝擊，重磅股匯控(00005.HK)本周三(1日)隨即宣布取消去年第四季派息，暫停今年派息及股份回購行動，引發市場動盪，更觸發匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)近日股價捱沽，多間大行分別下調對兩間銀行的派息預測以至目標價。
監管機構關注疫情下或導致大量壞帳，但瑞銀報告分析指，若疫情對經濟衝擊與2008年金融海嘯相若，則相信英國銀行業有足夠資本應付。
【瑞銀指英銀行資本充足】
瑞銀發表報告分析英國銀行資本是否充足問題。報告認為，若新型冠狀病毒疫情的影響程度如金融海嘯相若，英國銀行將有足夠資本緩衝應付。該行又認為，除非疫情對資產負債表及商業造成的永久性損害，較目前英國銀行股股值所反映的更嚴重，目前部分英國銀行股值出現七至八成資產折讓。
該行指，監管當局已準許銀行暫時取用資本留存緩衝及逆周期資本緩衝，在此情況下銀行的普通股權一級資本充足率較要求高253點子，停止派息及股份回購，將使英國銀行有額外40至50點子的吸收信貸損失能力。
【大行降派息預測及目標價】
高盛、美銀證券及摩根大通分別在英倫銀行有關行動後，對匯控及渣打發表最新報告。高盛基於調低對渣打盈利預測，將其目標價由原來74元降至66元，同時亦下調對匯控目標價，由原來68港元降至62港元，對兩者維持「買入」投資評級，高盛預期匯控今年上半年暫停派息，全年股息僅為31美仙。對渣打的股息收益率預測為3%。
美銀證券則估計匯控今年每股末期息降至0.1美元，全年每股股息預測由40美仙降至21美仙，匯控目標價由47.5元降至44.7元，評級為「中性」。該行亦下調對渣打今年全年股息預測，由32美仙降至28美仙，目標價57.78港元，評級為「買入」。
摩根大通指出，匯控去年底的普通股權一級比率14.7%，相信暫停派息對資本影響正面，但對股價影響負面，如匯控進一步停派今年派息，料會觸發股價較該行目標價再跌7%，料匯控或有機會遭市場過度拋售。該行目前維持對其「中性」投資評級及目標價60港元。
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券商於匯控公布削減派息後最新投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
高盛│買入│68->62元
摩通│中性│60元
美銀證券│中性│47.5元->44.7元
券商對渣打公布削減派息後最新投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
高盛│買入│74元->66元
美銀證券│買入│57.78元
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