廣汽集團(2238.HK)：自主業績低於預期，日系仍是增長引擎， 維持“買入”評級，目標價9.5 港元
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
目標價：9.5 港元
自主品牌4季度業績低於預期。公司公告2019年實現營收597億元，同比下 滑17.5%，實現淨利潤66.2億元，同比下滑39.3%。單看4季度，公司實現 收入166.7億元，同比下滑11.6%，淨利潤2.8億元，同比下滑73.2%，低於 我們預期，原因包括：1）Q4毛利率5.2%，同比下滑7pct，環比下滑1pct， 原因是研發相關無形資產攤銷計入營業成本；2）Q4銷售費用率為11.3%， 同比提升8pct，為2017年以來最高，主要是計提車型保修費用後導致售後服 務費用增加； 3）Q4資產減值損失5.8億元，主要是針對PHEV車型計提減值。
廣豐、廣本表現強勁，仍是增長引擎。公司2019年投資收益為96.3億元，同 比增長6.9%，其中廣本、廣豐利潤貢獻為39.3、48.2億元，同比增長31.2%、 28.3%，廣汽三菱為2.2億元，同比下滑59.7%，廣汽菲克虧損10.7億元 （2018年虧損4.8億元）。單看4季度，公司實現投資收益21.2億元，同比增 長58.9%，主要受益於廣本、廣豐4季度銷售強勁。展望2020年，我們認為 近期上市的皓影、威蘭達等高盈利車型依然將帶動廣本、廣豐實現高增長， 我們預計兩款新車穩態單車淨利潤為1.5/1.8萬元，分別為集團貢獻12/13億 元的淨利潤增量。廣汽菲克已實現產銷一體化運營，並且已經打開出口銷售 渠道，預計虧損壓力將得到緩解。
疫情影響短期銷量，維持“買入”評級。我們將 2020 年淨利潤預估下調 8.1% 至 99.4 億元，主要反映疫情對短期銷量的衝擊，以及自主品牌利潤修復進 度低於預期的影響。我們目標價調低至 9.5 港元，基於 2020 年 9 倍市盈率， 維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情加劇擴散，新產品銷售不及預期、價格戰升級、產品召回風 險、汽車行業政策風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
