中國水務(0855.HK)：一石二鳥的潛在交易，重申“買入”評級，目標價10.80 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.80 港元
公司透過發行可換股債券，引入機構性投資人，並變相增持康達環保(6136 HK)
中國水務於昨晚(4 月 1 日)公佈，其聯營公司康達環保(6136 HK；未評級)的第三大股東霸 菱亞洲(Baring Private Equity Asia)將以作價港幣 3.6 億向中國水務發行零票息可交換債券 (“EB”)，給予中國水務按每股港幣 1.05 元的權利，換取霸菱亞洲持有的康達環保 3.4 億股 份(佔總股本的 16.93%)。中國水務無須支付現金，但將以同等作價，按換股價每股港幣 8.05 元向霸菱亞洲發行零票息可換股債券(“CB”)。如果霸菱亞洲行使 CB，將換取 4,489 萬 中國水務新股份，佔擴大後的總股本之 2.72%。中國水務總股本也將增加 2.8%。EB 及 CB 的交換期和換股期皆是發行後的 31 個月內。我們認為，對於中國水務，這是一石二鳥的 潛在交易。公司將可以引入機構性投資人，並以鎖定價增持康達環保。
CB 換股價接近公司近年高位
是次 CB 換股價為每股港幣 8.05 元，較中國水務的昨天收市價港幣 5.65 元高出 42.5%，接 近近年高位。我們認為高換股價可以提振市場對公司的投資情緒。
全面收購康達環保的可能
是次潛在交易也涉及中國水務全面收購康達環保的可能。當中國水務行使 EB，其持有康 達環保的股權將由 29.52%上升至 46.45%，已經達到 30%或以上水平，按香港法規需要提 出全面要約收購。我們相信這將引發市場更加關注康達環保。
重申“買入”評級
待公司推進交易，我們目前不調整盈利預測和維持由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價 於 10.80 港元，這對應 9.2 倍 2021 年財年市盈率和 91.2%上升空間。重申“買入”評級。
風險提示：(一)水源受到污染、(二)水價提升幅度及進度低於預期、(三)匯率風險。
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