中国南方航空股份(1055.HK)：静待需求好转，维持中性评级 ，目标价3.6港元
机构：招商证券
评级：中性
目标价：3.6港元
■ 受国内需求偏弱和经营租赁并表拖累，公司2019年净利润同比下降 8.8%，低于预期
■ 2020年业绩受到疫情严重冲击，大幅下调公司盈利预测
■ 下调公司目标价18%至3.6港元，维持中性评级
2019年净利润同比下滑8.8% 公司2019年营收同比增长7.4%至1,543亿元人民币，营业利润同比增长 22.9%，净利润同比下降8.8%至26亿元人民币，略低于预期。经营数据方 面：1）ASK/RPK分别同比增长9.4%/9.9%，客座率同比提升0.4个百分 点，客公里收益同比下降1.6%，其中国内客公里收益同比下降2.4%，国际 市场表现好于国内；2）由于国际油价下跌和公司成本管控效果持续，公司 座公里成本同比下降3.2%，非油座公里成本同比下降0.7%。
公司净利低于 预期的主要原因：1）受经济形势影响，国内需求偏弱，影响票价水平； 2）波音737MAX停飞事件等因素影响，公司运力增速不及计划，限制了客 流的增长；3）受经营租赁并表影响，公司利息支出同比大增83%。 疫情将严重冲击2020年表现 新冠疫情对全球航空业产生严重冲击。从公司运营情况看，2月公司52%的 飞机停场，3月需求略有恢复，公司45%的飞机停场；目前公司客座水平约 60%。在国内疫情缓解的同时，国际疫情在2月底3月初大爆发，使疫情影 响时间超出预期。为应对疫情，公司主要采取控制成本、以边际贡献为衡 量标准、能飞尽飞的措施，同时推迟飞机引进，保障公司现金流。参考疫 情发展情况，如果国内不发生二次爆发，预计公司国内需求在5、6月有所 恢复，7、8月反弹；国际市场则存在更大不确定性。
下调公司盈利预测与目标价 我们大幅下调了公司盈利预测，预计公司2020年亏损33.7亿元人民币，基 于：1）疫情影响，下调供需和票价预测；2）考虑油价大幅下调、各项费 用减免政策。基于新的盈利预测，维持0.65倍预测市净率，结合汇率变 化，下调公司目标价18%至3.6港元，维持中性评级。
催化剂：疫情好转，需求恢复。 风险：疫情影响超出预期。
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