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澳優(1717.HK):新管理團隊掌舵黃金十年,羊奶粉明星品牌“佳貝艾特“穩居領導地位,首次覆蓋給予“強烈推薦”評級
格隆匯 04-02 14:58

機構:方正證券

評級:強烈推薦

中國嬰幼兒配方奶粉格局快速變化,行業集中度快速提升,國 產迅速崛起。澳優是行業中快速增長的龍頭,公司早在 2011 年 佈局全球優質產業鏈,收購荷蘭百年乳企海普諾凱,在供應鏈 環節優勢突出。同時引入中信作為大股東,以顏衞彬為領導的 新一代管理團隊經營治理能力出色,兼備國際背景和專業性, 帶領公司順利度過 2012 年危機,步入加速發展的“黃金十年” 。

澳優的產品力優勢突出,羊奶粉孵化明星品牌“佳貝艾特” ,定 位、定價居於第一梯隊,銷售規模多年來穩居行業領導地位, 海關數據顯示 2019 年佳貝艾特佔進口羊奶粉總量的 61%。並且 羊奶粉市場仍然保持巨大的增長潛力。牛奶粉孵化了三大主力 品牌(海普諾凱、能力多、美納多) ,各品牌特色鮮明,按品牌 設立事業部,在存量市場中,整體市佔率保持穩步提升態勢。

澳優深耕母嬰渠道。2011 年完成渠道體系的重建,並基於“會 員積分制”進行精細化營銷,深度服務消費者,持續投入地面 活動和廣宣,賦能渠道合作伙伴,並在多年的沉澱中良好的品 牌口碑和渠道推力。

【盈利預測及投資建議】 嬰幼兒配方牛奶粉、羊奶粉是未來公司的核心增長點。預計 2020-2022 年收入分別為 83 億、103 億、124 億元,經調整後淨 利潤分別為 12.0 億元、16.4 億元、20.9 億元,分別對應市盈率 15.4x、11.2x、8.8x,首次覆蓋給予“強烈推薦”評級。

【風險提示】 (1)2020 年新冠疫情惡化,對海外工廠生產及運輸造成或有 影響。(2)出生率下滑,行業競爭加劇,對奶粉的定價、收入 造成衝擊。(3)產能過剩,折舊攤銷相關的費用影響公司當期 利潤。(4)政策監管,新品通過註冊制審核存在不確定性。 

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