中國光大控股(0165.HK):壯大資管,開啟價值發現之旅,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價14.84 港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
目標價:14.84 港元
核心觀點:
金融央企下屬出色資產管理平台。公司主營私募股權投資業務,近年 收入佔比穩定超過 85%,包括基金管理業務及自有資金投資業務。
基金管理業務:產品線豐富,一級市場投資為優勢。截至 2019 年末資 產管理規模達 1570 億港元,其中一級市場基金佔 74%,光大安石管 理的房地產基金(478 億港元)和光際資本產業併購基金(101 億港 元)為兩隻最大體量的基金。二級市場基金資產規模達 228 億港元, 旗艦基金成立以來業績表現良好。母基金規模增長較快。自有資金投資 業務:由三大部分組成,分別為戰略性產業平台(佈局飛機租賃、養老 產業、智能物聯網)、財務性投資(自營投資、基金孵化器投資及司庫)、 基石性投資(持股 3.0%的光大銀行和 21.3%光大證券)。
公司的未來看點: (1)私募股權投資 AUM 穩步提升,管理費+業績報 酬模式下營收穩定性有望提升; (2)壯大直接融資背景下,註冊制、再 融資均在有序推進,對創投業務的退出具有積極效應; (3)關注公司在 金控管理辦法下持股光大證券及光大銀行的相關持股限制。
投資建議:估值窪地,未來有望迎來價值修復。按分部估值法給予估 值:(1)預計 2020 年公司客户合約收入為 6.03 億港元,按近三年恆 生指數 PE 平均為 10x 給予估值,對應市值為 60 億港元。 (2)自有資 金投資及種子基金投資:按 扣除持股光大證券及光大銀行後 0.6xPB 計 算,對應市值為 150 億港元。(3)戰略持有光大證券及光大銀行股權 按最新市值 20%折價後對應市值為 147 億港元。 (4)公司自身 ROE 較海外可比資產管理公司低、及市場對集團式經營企業存在估值折價 等,整體給予 30%折價,合計 250 億港元,對應 2020E 約為 10.4x PE 估值,合理價值 14.84 港元/股。一級市場環境改善,估值仍有提升空 間。首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。
風險提示:市場波動導致資產估值下降、項目退出進度不及預期等。
注:本文除特殊説明外,均使用港元為貨幣幣種。

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