標普:資產質量弱化影響工行(1398.HK)盈利 料可受益經濟復甦
標普全球評級發表報告指,作為中國資產規模最大的銀行,工商銀行(1398.HK)應對經濟波動的能力強於國內其他中小銀行,甚至可能將受益於資金向安全機構轉移的現象。然而,由於資產質量和淨息差承壓,2020年該行維持上年5%淨利潤增幅的難度可能較大。
宏觀層面,標普預期第三季度亞太區經濟會逐步出現U型復甦,到2021年年中的就業和產出將恢復至不發生新冠疫情情形下該有的水平。不過,經濟弱勢復甦的風險也在上升。預計憑藉非常強勁的業務狀況、高於平均水平的融資能力和強勁的流動性,工商銀行終將受益於經濟復甦。
報告指出,工商銀行面臨的資產質量壓力可控。然而,預計小微企業客户的逾期款將會增加,特別是風險更高的普惠金融客户,料資產質量弱化將影響工商銀行2020年的盈利。標普預計,雖然更大範圍的貨幣寬鬆使批發融資成本下降,但信貸收益減少和存款競爭加劇將導致淨息差承壓。儘管2019年上半年工商銀行的淨息差仍基本保持穩定,但2019年下半年平均信貸收益下滑5個基點。預計該行的信貸收益將進一步下降,符合監管支持實體經濟復甦的指導。
存款方面,預計該行將繼續優化存款結構,控制存款成本。監管當局採取的下調法定存款準備金率和嚴控存款利率競爭等其他做法也將有助於緩解存款壓力。工商銀行具備充足的資本緩衝空間來吸收信貸成本的上升壓力。2019年末,該行的一級資本充足率為14.27%。在境內市場發行人民幣1500億元永續混合資本工具和優先股後,2019年三季度一級資本充足率上升97個基點。
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