中國生物製藥(1177.HK)：集採品種承壓，期待新品放量，維持“買入”評級，目標價14.22 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：14.22 港元
核心觀點： *如非特別説明，本報告貨幣為人民幣
收入增長 16.0%，調整後歸母淨利潤增長 10.2%，Q4 業績略遜於預 期。公司公告 2019 年業績，收入 242.3 億元，同比增長 16.0%；調整 後歸母淨利潤 31.3 億元（去除收購泰德產生的無形資產攤銷費用和權 益投資影響），同比增長 10.2%；調整後每股盈利 24.97 分，同比增長 8.7%；歸母淨利潤 27.1 億元，同比下降 70.1%。派息每股 2 港仙。
腫瘤增長強勁，集採品種承壓，期待新品放量。腫瘤領域收入 54.28 億元（同比+70.3%），收入佔比提升至 22.4%（+7.1pct）。雷替曲賽（7.05 億元，同比+37.5%）， 達沙替尼（2.25 億元，同比+36.8%），硼替佐 米（1.67 億元，同比+125.7%）等產品增長顯著。考慮來那度胺、硼 替佐米、阿比特龍、吉非替尼、氟維司羣等腫瘤新產品的上市及安羅 替尼新適應症的拓展，2020 年腫瘤板塊有望維持高速增長，成為公司 貢獻收入和利潤最高的領域。公司以恩替卡韋為代表的全國集採品種 在 2019 年 Q4 承壓，肝病領域單季度下滑約 45%。但必須看到 2020 年以來公司已上市包括吸入用布地奈德混懸液等多個優質產品，新產 品的銷售有望彌補集採品種的下滑，並使公司產品結構不斷優化。
迎來研發收穫期，新產品支撐長期成長。公司指引 2020-2022 年可獲 得新藥品批件 29/34/35 個，數量位居上市公司第一，未來 5 年可推出 10-20 種 1.1 類創新藥，超過 10 種生物藥。不斷批量上市的優質首仿 藥、難仿藥和陸續上市的創新藥將成為公司強者恆強的重要驅動力。
盈利預測及投資建議：預計 20-21 年收入增速 13.8%/14.4%，歸母淨 利潤增速 14.0%/14.9%，EPS 為 0.28/0.32 元/股。採用 DCF 方法得 到公司合理價值為 14.22 港元/股，公司腫瘤和呼吸產品線產品放量可 期，即將迎來 PD-1/PD-L1 和生物類似藥收穫期，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示 仿製藥降價超預期；研發進度低於預期；行業政策風險
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