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標普:農行(1288.HK)貸款損失撥備強健,或能經受住疫情挑戰
格隆匯 04-01 13:33

標普發表報告稱,銀行的資產質量在不利的經濟環境下可能出現惡化,從而給資產負債表帶來衝擊,而農業銀行(1288.HK)在前些年積累的貸款損失撥備緩衝或能緩解這一影響,或能經受住新冠疫情帶來的挑戰。

該機構認為,在不調降撥備覆蓋率的情況下,2020年農業銀行將難以維持2019年4.6%的利潤增長率。不過,預計農業銀行將保持適當的資本水平,並將滿足所有地方的資本監管要求,資產質量壓力仍然可控。

標普預計,農業銀行2020年全年的淨息差將持續趨於下行,主要是因為貸款市場報價利率(LPR)重新定價,以及監管指引進一步下調貸款利率以支持新冠疫情期間借款人的還款。另外,農業銀行是中國銀行間市場上主要的淨貸出方,這一身份增加了銀行間市場利率下降給該行帶來的風險。不過,預計寬鬆的貨幣政策(包括對存款利率上限的監管收緊、進一步降低法定存款準備金率以及潛在存款基準利率下調)將部分抵消這些不利因素。

另外,標普預計農行普惠金融中小型企業客户的逾期付款將在一定程度上增加。這通常會帶來更大的信用風險。儘管2019年農業銀行普惠金融中小型企業貸款餘額取得了58.2%的較快增速,但截2019年12月31日,這部分貸款總餘額僅佔該行總貸款餘額的4.43%左右。

不過,農業銀行強健的貸款損失撥備緩衝將緩解信貸成本上升給該行的淨利潤和資本水平帶來的影響。截至2019年12月31日,農業銀行的不良貸款撥備覆蓋率為288.8%,而銀行系統的平均水平為186.1%。預計該行撥備對不良貸款,關注類貸款和延期還本付息貸款的覆蓋比例在疫情期間將維持在一個合理的水平。

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