一文了解券商於小米(01810.HK)公布業績後最新觀點、評級及目標價
小米集團(01810.HK)今日股價反覆偏軟，公司昨日(31日)收市後公布去年業績，全年純利按年跌25.9%至100.44億元人民幣，每股盈利0.423元人民幣，不派息。去年公司營業額按年升17.7%至2,058.39億元人民幣，當中智能手機部分收入按年升7.3%至1,221億元人民幣，去年智能手機銷量達1.25億部，均價按年升2.2%，智能手機毛利率由2018年的6.2%增至去年的7.2%，
物聯網(IoT)與生活消費產品方面，去年收入升41.7%，去年小米電視全球出貨量達1,280萬台按年升51.9%。互聯網服務去年收入則升24.4%至198億元人民幣，截至去年底MIUI月活躍用戶數達到3.1億戶，按年升27.9%。期內經調整淨利潤按年增長34.8%至115億元人民幣。
【美銀料海外疫情累手機銷售】
美銀證券認為，小米去年第四季實際經營溢利遜預期，又指內地智能手機需求自3月開始復甦，但疫情影響到海外市場，料情況將在4月至5月持續，該行較擔心印度市場，公司有35%智能手機出貨量在當地，現時印度工廠及物流均停工。公司在歐洲擴張亦將放慢。該行估計2020年遊戲收入將有較好表現，但料中國廣告業務今年或保持疲弱，而廣告定價將面對下行壓力，同時上半年智能手機銷售將放慢，亦會拖累預裝程式方面銷售，並影響利潤。該行下調對小米今明兩年盈利預測分別3%，目標價由9港元升至9.4港元，重申「跑輸大市」評級。
瑞信指出，雖然受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響，但小米旗下內地智能手機銷售在3月快速反彈，而公司生產亦已恢復至正常水平八至九成，海外銷售影響將在次季顯現，廣告業務方面所受影響則料可被視頻及遊戲流量所抵銷。該行不認同管理層對供應面樂觀看法，並估計公司今明兩年智能手機出貨量將分別為1.32億及1.47億部，低於早前預測，智能手機及IoT銷售增長將放慢至20%及30%，互聯網收入增速則會維持在21%水平。該行將小米今明兩年的經調整每股盈利分別降5%及2%，目標價降5%至11.6元，維持「中性」評級。
本網最新綜合8間券商對小米投資評級及目標價，各有1間券商上調及下調目標價，4間給予「買入」、「跑贏同業」或「跑贏大市」評級：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
瑞銀│買入│13.8元
中金│跑贏行業│13.5元
大和│跑贏大市│13元
花旗│買入│12.6元
野村│買入│12.5元
瑞信│中性│12.2元->11.6元
美銀證券│跑輸大市│9元->9.4元
摩根大通│減持│9元
券商│觀點
瑞銀│去年第四季非通用會計準則盈利符合預期
中金│互聯網業務增長部分地抵銷疫情對智能手機業務影響
大和│去年第四季業績符預期，全球出貨預測因疫情有下行空間
花旗│上季業績勝預期，前景鞏固
野村│海外需求風險正在上升
瑞信│去年業績大致符合預期，疫情影響於今年第二季顯現
美銀證券│去年第四季實質經營溢利遜預期
摩根大通│去年業績稍勝預期，今年上半年展望維持具挑戰性
(fc/w)
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