金地商置(00535.HK)：业绩大超预期,持有物业前景可期，维持“买入”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：买入
事件：金地商置发布2019年业绩：2019年公司实现营业收入117.10亿元，同比增长65%；归母净利润38.0亿元，同比增长69%；归母核心利润40.1亿元，同比增长76%；基本每股收益0.23元，全年派息0.0718元。
点评：业绩超预期释放，销售增长靓眼。2019年公司营收、归母净利润同比增速分别为65%、69%；业绩提升明显主要为结算放量，同时毛利率高达53%，盈利能力持续高位，其中物业发展、投资物业及长租、小贷业务毛利率分别达53%、39%、86.5%。公司销售增长迅猛。2019年公司实现销售额637亿元，同比增长30%；销售面积314万平方米，同比增长39%。截至2019年末，公司预收账款达184亿元，是当期营收的1.6倍，2018-2019年的销售资源给未来业绩结算打下坚实基础。
拿地积极，土地储备规模稳步上升。2019年公司共获取21宗土地，新增拿地面积494万平米，同比增长81%；拿地金额350亿元，是当期销售金额的55%；面积、金额口径权益比例分别为45%、44%；拿地均价6900元/平米，是当期销售均价的34%。截至2019年，公司土地储备1526万平米，同比增长11%；分城市看：20.5%位于一线城市，63.8%位于长沙、杭州、济南、南京、青岛、武汉等二线城市；15.7%位于淮安、徐州、太仓等三线城市。
持有物业持续发力。2019年公司实现租金及管理费收入6.71亿元，同比增长32%。公司目前在运营的深圳威新科技园出租率近100%，北京搜狐网络大厦、上海八号桥项目出租率均为100%，杭州购物中心出租率超96%。目前公司正在开发的商业项目包括徐州、南京、济南、北京、淮安等综合体项目，预计全部商业项目竣工后，有望为公司租金及管理费收入带来15亿元规模的增量空间。2020年公司将以投资额的15%投资持有型商业项目，租金增长可期。
杠杆维持低位，偿债压力小。2019年末，公司贷款总额102.7亿元，其中银行借款占比35%，融资利率3.5%-5.4%；从债务期限看，公司短债占比仅34%，短期偿债压力小。2019年，公司资产负债率72%，净负债率26%，同比提升12个百分点，仍处于行业较低位置。
投资建议：金地商置拿地前瞻，重点布局核心一二线城市，土地储备充沛且成本较低；同时公司还在核心城市持有大量优质物业，还有大量在建物业，未来租金收入将持续提升。预计2020-2022年公司EPS分别为0.30、0.38、0.46元人民币，对应PE分别为3.9、3.1、2.5倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：行业销售波动；政策调整导致经营风险；融资环境变动；企业运营风险；汇率波动风险。
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