植耀輝: 經濟前景仍具挑戰 還待內地刺激政策
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，疫情繼續在全球大爆發，美國疾控中心指疾情本月將達高峰，即使是非洲，過去數日多國亦出現首宗病例；相比之下，內地情況則漸見回穩，經濟活動逐步恢復，最新公布之3月PMI更見強勁反彈。不過，由於PMI屬環比指數，故在基數效應下才有此種現象，能否維持仍有待觀察；早前公布之首兩個月規模以上工業企業利潤下跌38.3%，亦反映企業情況仍未許樂觀。
當然，投資者理應對經濟衰退陰霾有相當心理準備，但問題在於一旦疫情持續，環球經濟變得一潭死水，隨時衍生更多民生及政治問題，後果將可大可小。事實上，已有部分國家短暫停止個別食物出口以應對國內情況。而且，即使內地企業已陸續復工，但據知接單情況仍相當不樂觀，看來關鍵還是下半年內地會否有更多刺激經濟措施出台。
疫情之下，企業無一不艱苦經營，近期更有不少老牌食店或理髮廳相繼宣布結業，難免令人惋惜，但情況又豈止中小企?大型企業亦同樣要面此種挑戰。部分未能及時作好準備，最終亦難逃被淘汰或退場之命運。
曾幾何時，利豐(00494.HK)全球供應鏈之角色無可取締，《財富》雜誌也曾評選為全球最佳創意以及最具有競爭力公司，哈佛商學院更將其成功經驗納入為教材。但如大部分傳統企業一樣，電子商貿的興起，打破了其一直最為自豪之中間人角色地位。雖然集團積極求變，例如購入多個品牌銷售權，並將業務數碼化，可惜成效一直未如理想，結果近年業績持續倒退之餘，2017年更被剔出恆指成份股，市值亦由最高峰時之超過2,000億元，跌至現時約90億元。最新情況是大股東馮氏家族夥拍物流公司提出以每股1.25元將其私有化。雖然出手較停牌前顯得「闊綽」，但股價現時仍「深潛」中，加上利豐旗下物流業務頗有賣點，未來亦肯定會伺機分拆上市。要成功私有化，如意算盤未必一定打得響。
另一間則是服裝股思捷(00330.HK)。倚著歐洲特別是德國市場，思捷在2000年代風頭一時無兩，更利害的是儘管大股東邢李(火原)不斷減持股份，但股價仍接連攀升，2002年晉身成為恆指成份股，市值最高峰超過1,700億元。但一場金融海嘯，令思捷發展受到重擊，其後Fast Fashion如Zara及H&M等相繼崛起，思捷更只有捱打份兒；集團亦進行多次重組以及更換管理班子，希望能將業務重拾增長，可惜一直未如理想，股價大跌兼經營狀況未見起色。面對今次疫情，集團更宣布將德國6家子公司申請破產，昨日計市值亦僅得不足13億元。
所以每逢出現重大事件，對企業而言，永遠也是「危」、「機」並存。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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