中國水務(0855.HK)：肺炎疫情對供水業務的影響漸漸退卻，重申“買入”評級，目標價10.80 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.80 港元
居民生活供水量上升可抵消工商供水量下跌之影響
受到肺炎疫情影響，內地工商業活動早前相對放緩。我們估計公司 2020 年第一季工商供 水量也因此同比下跌；居民生活供水量卻由於民眾大都待在家中而同比大幅上升。按照 居民生活供水量一般佔公司自來水總供水量之約 45%比例，我們相信最終居民生活供水 量上升可抵消工商供水量下跌對公司之影響。
工商供水量開始回覆正常
過去，公司工商供水量在春節假期後很快回復至正常水平。我們相信隨着不同行業復工 復產，公司工商供水量於 3 月份開始漸漸回覆正常。
聯營公司康達環保(6136 HK)公佈了理想的 2019 年業績
中國水務於去年 4 月份收購了康達環保(6136 HK；未評級)之 29.52%股權後，對後者進行 一連串內部改革，藉以改善運營效率。康達環保上週五(27 日)公佈了理想的 2019 年業 績，確認了改善成效。由於專注城鎮污水處理而淡出其他業務，康達環保的 2019 年收入 同比下跌 6.8%至人民幣 28.2 億。由於運營效率上升而利潤率改善，康達環保的 2019 年 股東淨利潤則同比上升 24.2%至人民幣 3.8 億。
重申“買入”評級
考慮到(一)肺炎疫情對公司之影響漸漸退卻；(二)康達環保的理想2019年業績，加上作出 一些技術性修改，我們分別上調 2020-2022 年財年(年結：3 月 31 日)股東淨利潤 0.1%、 0.6%、3.4% (見圖表 1)。我們也相應地將由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價由 10.50 港 元提升至 10.80 港元 (見圖表 2 和 3) ，這對應 9.2 倍 2021 年財年市盈率和 87.2%上升空 間。重申“買入”評級。
風險提示：(一)水源受到污染、(二)水價提升幅度及進度低於預期、(三)匯率風險。
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