正榮地產（6158.HK）：持續運營升級，目標價5.6港元
機構：建銀國際
目標價：5.6港元
2019年業績。正榮的年內股息0.1港元，派息率下降10個百分點至17％。核心利潤增長20％至人民幣23億元，較我們預期低，這是由於下降的毛利率所致。 毛利率由於去庫存的較低平均售價下降了3個百分點至20％。聯合營項目的利潤轉正，貢獻核心利潤的23％。正榮設定了銷售目標人民幣1400元，同比增長7％或按照權益銷售額同比增長15％（55％的權益比，而2019年約51％）。2020的可售資料達人民幣2500億元，意味着約64％的去化率。正榮補充了560萬平方米的土地儲備，並大幅提高權益比至73％，而2018年為33％。
財務顯着改善。自2018年上市以來，正榮的基本面穩步改善。到現在我們認為市場應該上調它的股票評級。淨負債率，包含永續資本證券和資產支持證券，2019年改善了19個百分點至95％。2019年末的現金對短債比為1.8倍，短債佔總借貸比率為34％，而2018年末的短債佔總借貸比率為51%。正榮的財務結構也得到了改善，於2019年末，信託佔總債比例從2018年末的36%下降至20％，主要是用年期更長成本更低的債券和銀團貸款進行了替換，因此令到正榮的平均融資成本在2019年下降0.3個百分點至7.5％。
自上市以來整體穩步提升。從2020年開始我們期望管理層更加重視公司運營的提升，這樣可以令公司2020年的銷售權益比提升至55%，2019年為51％，且可以讓毛利重返22％。我們將2020 F / 2021F核心利潤預測下調了25％/33％，反映了較慢的收入確認及降低的毛利率。我們目標價為5.6港元，基於我們估算的每股資產淨值折讓約55％，預計新增土儲的利潤率將改善現有土儲的較低利潤率。我們認為跑贏大盤的主要風險包括經濟進一步放緩以及可能過於激進的土地儲備策略。
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