海底撈(6862.HK)：看好公司在行業重塑中的機會，維持“買入”評級，目標價34.30 港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：34.30 港元
◆業績符合我們的預期，運營數據整體仍較為健康 海底撈 2019 年收入 265.6 億元，yoy+56.6%，全年淨利潤 23.47 億元， yoy+42.3%，符合我們的預期。公司新開門店共 302 家，門店數量達 768 家，符合預期。運營數據方面，整體翻枱率 4.8 次/天（2018 年同期為 5.0 次/天），SSSG 為 1.6%，略低於預期。我們認為，隨着海底撈門店的進一 步加密，翻枱從前期飽和狀態出現下降是合理的。開店速度和翻枱之間勢 必需要平衡，翻枱可控的下降是良性的。成本端，原材料成本佔比提高 1.4pct，主要受到今年肉類價格大幅上漲影響，員工成本上漲 0.5pct，其他 成本佔比基本保持穩定。 具體看，一二三線級城市 SSSG 分別為-0.2%/-1.9%/8.3%，海外門店為 11.9%。一二線城市的同店出現了負增長，主要受到同店統計口徑變化以及 門店加密的影響。整體看同店翻枱仍保持在 5.2 次/天的較高水平。值得注 意的是，海外門店的表現非常亮眼，公司 19 年在東南亞和英國倫敦的新開 門店均有不錯的表現。 目前公司共有儲備店長 1362 名，家族數量達到 65 個。已簽約門店 303 家， 簽約的門店通常會在一年內投入運營，因此我們調整對 2020 年新開店的預 估，預計今年將新開店 320 家，考慮到疫情影響，預計上下半年開店速度 為 1:4。2019 年共上架 453 款新品，當前已經能做到門店菜單的個性化， 每個門店有 1-2 個菜品不同於其他門店。海底撈自營啤酒的銷售額為 2.2 億元，佔到酒水的 40.23%。
◆盈利預測與投資評級 餐飲行業是受到疫情衝擊影響最大的行業之一。但我們看到，疫情對於餐 飲行業來説是“危”也是“機”，現金流充沛、品牌力強的餐飲品牌有望 在未來進一步鞏固自己的地位，我們繼續看好海底撈的長期機會。當前公 司已有約 621 家門店恢復營業，由於門店控制客流，整體翻枱率約高於 2.0 次/天。我們假設 1）2020 年 H1 一線/二線/三線城市整體翻枱分別下滑 60%/50%/50%，門店盈利情況將於 H2 恢復常態；2）2020 年新開 320 家 門店，上下半年開店比例為 1:4。下調 2020/2021 年營收預測至 323/525 億元，淨利預測至 17.3/46.4 億元，引入 2022 年營收和淨利預測分別為 669/61 億元，維持公司“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：疫情影響高於預期，公司恢復低於預期
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